The 100,000 usd/jpy has been closed 6pips ahead. I'd hoped for a sustained appreciation to 116.40+ but doubt this will happen prior to the session close. The Dow never made it above its open (8,635.31) , and so we've seen a retracement of earlier dollar gains.
eur/jpy has been shorted for 100,000 units from 117.10 , stop 117.55 . I'm expecting a return to 116.5 , perhaps prior to the Tokyo session. Also the usd/chf limit order Long 100,000 from 1.45 has been activated . This currently stands 1pip ahead.
Bal: 101,748.47 ::: P&L: 1,724.51 + (-132.88)
short CHF 145,000 , EUR 100,000 ::: long JPY 11,710,000 , USD 100,000
current trades :
S eur/jpy from 117.10 , stop 117.55 , tp 116.03
L usd/chf from 1.45 , stop 1.4480 , tp 1.4595
Selasa, 16 Juli 2002
The 100,000 usd/jpy has been closed 6pips ahead. I'd hoped for a sustained appreciation to 116.40+ but doubt this will happen prior to the session close. The Dow never made it above its open (8,635.31) , and so we've seen a retracement of earlier dollar gains.
eur/jpy has been shorted for 100,000 units from 117.10 , stop 117.55 . I'm expecting a return to 116.5 , perhaps prior to the Tokyo session. Also the usd/chf limit order Long 100,000 from 1.45 has been activated . This currently stands 1pip ahead.
Bal: 101,748.47 ::: P&L: 1,724.51 + (-132.88)
short CHF 145,000 , EUR 100,000 ::: long JPY 11,710,000 , USD 100,000
current trades :
S eur/jpy from 117.10 , stop 117.55 , tp 116.03
L usd/chf from 1.45 , stop 1.4480 , tp 1.4595
eur/jpy has been shorted for 100,000 units from 117.10 , stop 117.55 . I'm expecting a return to 116.5 , perhaps prior to the Tokyo session. Also the usd/chf limit order Long 100,000 from 1.45 has been activated . This currently stands 1pip ahead.
Bal: 101,748.47 ::: P&L: 1,724.51 + (-132.88)
short CHF 145,000 , EUR 100,000 ::: long JPY 11,710,000 , USD 100,000
current trades :
S eur/jpy from 117.10 , stop 117.55 , tp 116.03
L usd/chf from 1.45 , stop 1.4480 , tp 1.4595
I've entered a Long for 100,000 usd/jpy from 115.89, stop 115.70. The pair had peeked above 116 a moment ago and may be staging a return to 116.40 or beyond.
Today's economic news was rather good IMO .
Greenspan's testimony is here
synop. :
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says that absent further shocks, the U.S. economy is poised for sustainable growth, though depressing effects still linger. In addressing the falling dollar, he cautioned against overinterpreting its drop. He also said that corporate governance problems could hurt business efficiency, and more reports of corporate misdeeds may continue to surface. Moreover, he reiterated the fact that price inflation has fallen to its lowest level in four decades. Fed estimates for US Real GDP are 3.56-3.57% in 2002, 3.5-4.0% in 2003. Price Index 1.5-1.75% in 2002, 1.5-1.75 % for 2003. Jobless rate 5.75-6.00% in 2002, 5.52-5.50% in 2003.
June Industrial Production rose 0.8% (exp 0.4% prev revised to 0.4% from 0.2%).
June Capacity Utilization 76.1% (exp 75.7% prev revised to 75.6% from 75.5%).
Today's economic news was rather good IMO .
Greenspan's testimony is here
synop. :
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says that absent further shocks, the U.S. economy is poised for sustainable growth, though depressing effects still linger. In addressing the falling dollar, he cautioned against overinterpreting its drop. He also said that corporate governance problems could hurt business efficiency, and more reports of corporate misdeeds may continue to surface. Moreover, he reiterated the fact that price inflation has fallen to its lowest level in four decades. Fed estimates for US Real GDP are 3.56-3.57% in 2002, 3.5-4.0% in 2003. Price Index 1.5-1.75% in 2002, 1.5-1.75 % for 2003. Jobless rate 5.75-6.00% in 2002, 5.52-5.50% in 2003.
June Industrial Production rose 0.8% (exp 0.4% prev revised to 0.4% from 0.2%).
June Capacity Utilization 76.1% (exp 75.7% prev revised to 75.6% from 75.5%).
I've entered a Long for 100,000 usd/jpy from 115.89, stop 115.70. The pair had peeked above 116 a moment ago and may be staging a return to 116.40 or beyond.
Today's economic news was rather good IMO .
Greenspan's testimony is here
synop. :
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says that absent further shocks, the U.S. economy is poised for sustainable growth, though depressing effects still linger. In addressing the falling dollar, he cautioned against overinterpreting its drop. He also said that corporate governance problems could hurt business efficiency, and more reports of corporate misdeeds may continue to surface. Moreover, he reiterated the fact that price inflation has fallen to its lowest level in four decades. Fed estimates for US Real GDP are 3.56-3.57% in 2002, 3.5-4.0% in 2003. Price Index 1.5-1.75% in 2002, 1.5-1.75 % for 2003. Jobless rate 5.75-6.00% in 2002, 5.52-5.50% in 2003.
June Industrial Production rose 0.8% (exp 0.4% prev revised to 0.4% from 0.2%).
June Capacity Utilization 76.1% (exp 75.7% prev revised to 75.6% from 75.5%).
Today's economic news was rather good IMO .
Greenspan's testimony is here
synop. :
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan says that absent further shocks, the U.S. economy is poised for sustainable growth, though depressing effects still linger. In addressing the falling dollar, he cautioned against overinterpreting its drop. He also said that corporate governance problems could hurt business efficiency, and more reports of corporate misdeeds may continue to surface. Moreover, he reiterated the fact that price inflation has fallen to its lowest level in four decades. Fed estimates for US Real GDP are 3.56-3.57% in 2002, 3.5-4.0% in 2003. Price Index 1.5-1.75% in 2002, 1.5-1.75 % for 2003. Jobless rate 5.75-6.00% in 2002, 5.52-5.50% in 2003.
June Industrial Production rose 0.8% (exp 0.4% prev revised to 0.4% from 0.2%).
June Capacity Utilization 76.1% (exp 75.7% prev revised to 75.6% from 75.5%).
Last night's trades worked well yielding $1,625.59 to bring the account balance up to $101,778.88.
The only trade that had failed was a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd from 1.01 that stopped at 1.0110.
The usd/jpy trades closed in the 115.70's and at 115.55. The usd/chf trade took profit at 1.4504.
The only open trade is a usd/chf short from 1.4531 for 50,000 that I'd placed shortly after noon (EST) hoping to catch a retracement to 1.4500 from 1.4550.
** this trade was stopped while I'd been writing this , looks as though the Dow is about to exceed its open. USD is responding positively across the board. Notice the account revision below.
Bal: 101,696.38 ::: P&L: 1,672.79 + (0)
no open trades
current trades :
none
The only trade that had failed was a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd from 1.01 that stopped at 1.0110.
The usd/jpy trades closed in the 115.70's and at 115.55. The usd/chf trade took profit at 1.4504.
The only open trade is a usd/chf short from 1.4531 for 50,000 that I'd placed shortly after noon (EST) hoping to catch a retracement to 1.4500 from 1.4550.
** this trade was stopped while I'd been writing this , looks as though the Dow is about to exceed its open. USD is responding positively across the board. Notice the account revision below.
Bal: 101,696.38 ::: P&L: 1,672.79 + (0)
no open trades
current trades :
none
Last night's trades worked well yielding $1,625.59 to bring the account balance up to $101,778.88.
The only trade that had failed was a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd from 1.01 that stopped at 1.0110.
The usd/jpy trades closed in the 115.70's and at 115.55. The usd/chf trade took profit at 1.4504.
The only open trade is a usd/chf short from 1.4531 for 50,000 that I'd placed shortly after noon (EST) hoping to catch a retracement to 1.4500 from 1.4550.
** this trade was stopped while I'd been writing this , looks as though the Dow is about to exceed its open. USD is responding positively across the board. Notice the account revision below.
Bal: 101,696.38 ::: P&L: 1,672.79 + (0)
no open trades
current trades :
none
The only trade that had failed was a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd from 1.01 that stopped at 1.0110.
The usd/jpy trades closed in the 115.70's and at 115.55. The usd/chf trade took profit at 1.4504.
The only open trade is a usd/chf short from 1.4531 for 50,000 that I'd placed shortly after noon (EST) hoping to catch a retracement to 1.4500 from 1.4550.
** this trade was stopped while I'd been writing this , looks as though the Dow is about to exceed its open. USD is responding positively across the board. Notice the account revision below.
Bal: 101,696.38 ::: P&L: 1,672.79 + (0)
no open trades
current trades :
none
Senin, 15 Juli 2002
It appears that trading is relatively thin this evening. Price formation among the majors is characterised by small average range variations in clearing prices at most intervals punctuated by 15 to 20 pip spikes, occuring in either direction, that are quickly returned. The latter is indicative of low liquidity.
The usd/chf has recently begun heading towards 1.46 though the dollar has been gradually declining most of the session. The usd/chf seems prone to erratic reversals and occasionally decouples from both dollar and euro movements. I've closed the 70,000 usd/chf short for a 24pip loss an am going to place a limit order to short usd/chf @ 1.46 for 100,000 units. This will be intended as a medium range trade targeting 1.44 w/ a stop @ 1.4715.
the account balance now stands at 100.153.29 w/ -90.38 in unrealized losses.
The usd/chf has recently begun heading towards 1.46 though the dollar has been gradually declining most of the session. The usd/chf seems prone to erratic reversals and occasionally decouples from both dollar and euro movements. I've closed the 70,000 usd/chf short for a 24pip loss an am going to place a limit order to short usd/chf @ 1.46 for 100,000 units. This will be intended as a medium range trade targeting 1.44 w/ a stop @ 1.4715.
the account balance now stands at 100.153.29 w/ -90.38 in unrealized losses.
It appears that trading is relatively thin this evening. Price formation among the majors is characterised by small average range variations in clearing prices at most intervals punctuated by 15 to 20 pip spikes, occuring in either direction, that are quickly returned. The latter is indicative of low liquidity.
The usd/chf has recently begun heading towards 1.46 though the dollar has been gradually declining most of the session. The usd/chf seems prone to erratic reversals and occasionally decouples from both dollar and euro movements. I've closed the 70,000 usd/chf short for a 24pip loss an am going to place a limit order to short usd/chf @ 1.46 for 100,000 units. This will be intended as a medium range trade targeting 1.44 w/ a stop @ 1.4715.
the account balance now stands at 100.153.29 w/ -90.38 in unrealized losses.
The usd/chf has recently begun heading towards 1.46 though the dollar has been gradually declining most of the session. The usd/chf seems prone to erratic reversals and occasionally decouples from both dollar and euro movements. I've closed the 70,000 usd/chf short for a 24pip loss an am going to place a limit order to short usd/chf @ 1.46 for 100,000 units. This will be intended as a medium range trade targeting 1.44 w/ a stop @ 1.4715.
the account balance now stands at 100.153.29 w/ -90.38 in unrealized losses.
new trade
Short 150,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
* this trade is comprised of two positions- one for 100,000 and a second for 50,000 .
The usd/jpy trade is in response to a fall below 116.20 towards 116. We'll have to see what happens at 116 , but I'm assuming it will penetrate towards 115.7 again.
eur/usd is up to 1.0080 again. There's a good chance it will hit 1.01 tonight , but to this point hasn't displayed sufficient momentum to break significantly higher. I'm frankly not sure which way it will move in the near term , so I'm sitting still. If there's a retracement to .99 or .98 , these levels might provide good buying opportunities. I have a suspicion that we'll be looking at 1.025 within the next month. This may not last long , but until dollar pressure has abated somewhat the dollar down draft will pull the euro higher.
current trades
S 100,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
S 70,000 usd/chf from 1.4563 , stop 1.4607, tp 1.45
Short 150,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
* this trade is comprised of two positions- one for 100,000 and a second for 50,000 .
The usd/jpy trade is in response to a fall below 116.20 towards 116. We'll have to see what happens at 116 , but I'm assuming it will penetrate towards 115.7 again.
eur/usd is up to 1.0080 again. There's a good chance it will hit 1.01 tonight , but to this point hasn't displayed sufficient momentum to break significantly higher. I'm frankly not sure which way it will move in the near term , so I'm sitting still. If there's a retracement to .99 or .98 , these levels might provide good buying opportunities. I have a suspicion that we'll be looking at 1.025 within the next month. This may not last long , but until dollar pressure has abated somewhat the dollar down draft will pull the euro higher.
current trades
S 100,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
S 70,000 usd/chf from 1.4563 , stop 1.4607, tp 1.45
new trade
Short 150,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
* this trade is comprised of two positions- one for 100,000 and a second for 50,000 .
The usd/jpy trade is in response to a fall below 116.20 towards 116. We'll have to see what happens at 116 , but I'm assuming it will penetrate towards 115.7 again.
eur/usd is up to 1.0080 again. There's a good chance it will hit 1.01 tonight , but to this point hasn't displayed sufficient momentum to break significantly higher. I'm frankly not sure which way it will move in the near term , so I'm sitting still. If there's a retracement to .99 or .98 , these levels might provide good buying opportunities. I have a suspicion that we'll be looking at 1.025 within the next month. This may not last long , but until dollar pressure has abated somewhat the dollar down draft will pull the euro higher.
current trades
S 100,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
S 70,000 usd/chf from 1.4563 , stop 1.4607, tp 1.45
Short 150,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
* this trade is comprised of two positions- one for 100,000 and a second for 50,000 .
The usd/jpy trade is in response to a fall below 116.20 towards 116. We'll have to see what happens at 116 , but I'm assuming it will penetrate towards 115.7 again.
eur/usd is up to 1.0080 again. There's a good chance it will hit 1.01 tonight , but to this point hasn't displayed sufficient momentum to break significantly higher. I'm frankly not sure which way it will move in the near term , so I'm sitting still. If there's a retracement to .99 or .98 , these levels might provide good buying opportunities. I have a suspicion that we'll be looking at 1.025 within the next month. This may not last long , but until dollar pressure has abated somewhat the dollar down draft will pull the euro higher.
current trades
S 100,000 usd/jpy from 116.15 , stop 116.32
S 70,000 usd/chf from 1.4563 , stop 1.4607, tp 1.45
the Nikkei is currently up 0.28% , from a recent high of 10,500 . A reflection off of 10,400 , and continuation upwards could add value to the Yen .
the Nikkei is currently up 0.28% , from a recent high of 10,500 . A reflection off of 10,400 , and continuation upwards could add value to the Yen .
more good news
from FXStreet :
Tom Fitzpatrick, senior technical analyst at Citibank in New York.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"Parity is a psychological, not a technical level...and whether we pause around parity or not, we are likely to see significant further dollar losses...Our initial target is $1.03 to $1.0450. If that level is taken out, it actually casts a question mark against the whole of the dollar's rally of the last seven years, and could open up a full-blown bear market for the dollar."
Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"The dollar is under pressure from everything from economic problems to asset reallocation away from the U.S. and corporate accounting problems. It's difficult to see any positive factor for the dollar at the moment. The root of the problem is the U.S. current account deficit. If the U.S. doesn't have to attract an enormous amount of foreign capital, people wouldn't have to worry about domestic problems. One solution to this is a weaker dollar."
from FXStreet :
Tom Fitzpatrick, senior technical analyst at Citibank in New York.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"Parity is a psychological, not a technical level...and whether we pause around parity or not, we are likely to see significant further dollar losses...Our initial target is $1.03 to $1.0450. If that level is taken out, it actually casts a question mark against the whole of the dollar's rally of the last seven years, and could open up a full-blown bear market for the dollar."
Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"The dollar is under pressure from everything from economic problems to asset reallocation away from the U.S. and corporate accounting problems. It's difficult to see any positive factor for the dollar at the moment. The root of the problem is the U.S. current account deficit. If the U.S. doesn't have to attract an enormous amount of foreign capital, people wouldn't have to worry about domestic problems. One solution to this is a weaker dollar."
more good news
from FXStreet :
Tom Fitzpatrick, senior technical analyst at Citibank in New York.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"Parity is a psychological, not a technical level...and whether we pause around parity or not, we are likely to see significant further dollar losses...Our initial target is $1.03 to $1.0450. If that level is taken out, it actually casts a question mark against the whole of the dollar's rally of the last seven years, and could open up a full-blown bear market for the dollar."
Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"The dollar is under pressure from everything from economic problems to asset reallocation away from the U.S. and corporate accounting problems. It's difficult to see any positive factor for the dollar at the moment. The root of the problem is the U.S. current account deficit. If the U.S. doesn't have to attract an enormous amount of foreign capital, people wouldn't have to worry about domestic problems. One solution to this is a weaker dollar."
from FXStreet :
Tom Fitzpatrick, senior technical analyst at Citibank in New York.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"Parity is a psychological, not a technical level...and whether we pause around parity or not, we are likely to see significant further dollar losses...Our initial target is $1.03 to $1.0450. If that level is taken out, it actually casts a question mark against the whole of the dollar's rally of the last seven years, and could open up a full-blown bear market for the dollar."
Julian Jessop, chief European economist at Standard Chartered Bank.
Monday, July 15, 2002
"The dollar is under pressure from everything from economic problems to asset reallocation away from the U.S. and corporate accounting problems. It's difficult to see any positive factor for the dollar at the moment. The root of the problem is the U.S. current account deficit. If the U.S. doesn't have to attract an enormous amount of foreign capital, people wouldn't have to worry about domestic problems. One solution to this is a weaker dollar."
I've entered a short for 70,000 usd/chf from 1.4563 targeting 1.45 , stop 1.4607.
Also , a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd @ 1.01 has been entered. I'm expecting to catch some retracement on this , thought I'd gotten stung by the same strategy last night.
There appears to be some resistance at 116.20 usd/jpy . If this breaks and subsequently breaches 116 I'd expect a revisitation of 115.7 and likely 115.5 . There's a limit order for 100,000 long waiting at 115.60 .
Also , a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd @ 1.01 has been entered. I'm expecting to catch some retracement on this , thought I'd gotten stung by the same strategy last night.
There appears to be some resistance at 116.20 usd/jpy . If this breaks and subsequently breaches 116 I'd expect a revisitation of 115.7 and likely 115.5 . There's a limit order for 100,000 long waiting at 115.60 .
I've entered a short for 70,000 usd/chf from 1.4563 targeting 1.45 , stop 1.4607.
Also , a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd @ 1.01 has been entered. I'm expecting to catch some retracement on this , thought I'd gotten stung by the same strategy last night.
There appears to be some resistance at 116.20 usd/jpy . If this breaks and subsequently breaches 116 I'd expect a revisitation of 115.7 and likely 115.5 . There's a limit order for 100,000 long waiting at 115.60 .
Also , a limit order to short 100,000 eur/usd @ 1.01 has been entered. I'm expecting to catch some retracement on this , thought I'd gotten stung by the same strategy last night.
There appears to be some resistance at 116.20 usd/jpy . If this breaks and subsequently breaches 116 I'd expect a revisitation of 115.7 and likely 115.5 . There's a limit order for 100,000 long waiting at 115.60 .
Intervention Update
Forexnews :
7/15/2002 8:12:00 PM Japan's Eco Min Takenaka says they must take action on FX if rates move away from fundamentals and that he wants to see BoJ take more easing steps. He also states that he wants BoJ to consider fx moves when deciding monetary policy and adds that Japanese stocks are undervalued.
for further analysis go to the Forexnews Japanese Trading Preview
Also , tomorrow chairman Greenspan reports to Congress and June Industrial Production figures come out with the expectation of a %0.4 rise along with June Capacity Utilization baring a consensus forecast for a %0.3 improvement. Each of these will factor significantly on the dollar considering its recently lows . Their imminence may inhibit further dramatic movements this evening through the first half of the NY session.
Forexnews :
7/15/2002 8:12:00 PM Japan's Eco Min Takenaka says they must take action on FX if rates move away from fundamentals and that he wants to see BoJ take more easing steps. He also states that he wants BoJ to consider fx moves when deciding monetary policy and adds that Japanese stocks are undervalued.
for further analysis go to the Forexnews Japanese Trading Preview
Also , tomorrow chairman Greenspan reports to Congress and June Industrial Production figures come out with the expectation of a %0.4 rise along with June Capacity Utilization baring a consensus forecast for a %0.3 improvement. Each of these will factor significantly on the dollar considering its recently lows . Their imminence may inhibit further dramatic movements this evening through the first half of the NY session.
Intervention Update
Forexnews :
7/15/2002 8:12:00 PM Japan's Eco Min Takenaka says they must take action on FX if rates move away from fundamentals and that he wants to see BoJ take more easing steps. He also states that he wants BoJ to consider fx moves when deciding monetary policy and adds that Japanese stocks are undervalued.
for further analysis go to the Forexnews Japanese Trading Preview
Also , tomorrow chairman Greenspan reports to Congress and June Industrial Production figures come out with the expectation of a %0.4 rise along with June Capacity Utilization baring a consensus forecast for a %0.3 improvement. Each of these will factor significantly on the dollar considering its recently lows . Their imminence may inhibit further dramatic movements this evening through the first half of the NY session.
Forexnews :
7/15/2002 8:12:00 PM Japan's Eco Min Takenaka says they must take action on FX if rates move away from fundamentals and that he wants to see BoJ take more easing steps. He also states that he wants BoJ to consider fx moves when deciding monetary policy and adds that Japanese stocks are undervalued.
for further analysis go to the Forexnews Japanese Trading Preview
Also , tomorrow chairman Greenspan reports to Congress and June Industrial Production figures come out with the expectation of a %0.4 rise along with June Capacity Utilization baring a consensus forecast for a %0.3 improvement. Each of these will factor significantly on the dollar considering its recently lows . Their imminence may inhibit further dramatic movements this evening through the first half of the NY session.
Evening Round-up
We're up $268.79 on the account and $241.66 in realized P&L w/ no open trades.
We'd gotten walloped on the 200,000 eur/usd limit order long @ .9995 . I had expected a correction from the 1 - 1.0050 range to either the low .9900's or into the .9800's; the trade was stopped @ 1.0055 ( - $121.00 ) . Rather that retrace , the euro proceeded virtually unabated to 1.0090. It's currently at 1.0040 . The Tokyo and London sessions may push this above 1.01 if the dollar resumes its decline.
Dollar limit orders @ 116.09 (100,000), 115.74 (100,000) , 115.79 (10,000) , which had replaced the original usd/jpy Long trades from the low 117.00's , saved the day by returning $534.61when closed shortly after the close of the NY session for 116.21 and 116.23. A 100,000 usd/chf Short from 1.4583 placed at about 11:00 am , that closed at 1.4556 an hour later, provided $185.49 to bring the account from last night's low of 99,514.62 to 99,700 . The remainder of today's profits are entirely attributable to the usd/jpy trades.
Tonight should prove interesting - will the markets experience buyer's remorse and sell the euro , or will such a robust break above parity inspire Euro bulls to begin climbing for 1.0250 ?
I'm watching eur/jpy for a break below 116.5 as an opportunity to short towards 115.
lessons for the day :
stop loss orders are good
chasing interventions downhill is annoying and inefficient - use limit orders instead.
Bal: 100,268.79 ::: P&L: 241.66 + ( 0 )
No Open Trades
We're up $268.79 on the account and $241.66 in realized P&L w/ no open trades.
We'd gotten walloped on the 200,000 eur/usd limit order long @ .9995 . I had expected a correction from the 1 - 1.0050 range to either the low .9900's or into the .9800's; the trade was stopped @ 1.0055 ( - $121.00 ) . Rather that retrace , the euro proceeded virtually unabated to 1.0090. It's currently at 1.0040 . The Tokyo and London sessions may push this above 1.01 if the dollar resumes its decline.
Dollar limit orders @ 116.09 (100,000), 115.74 (100,000) , 115.79 (10,000) , which had replaced the original usd/jpy Long trades from the low 117.00's , saved the day by returning $534.61when closed shortly after the close of the NY session for 116.21 and 116.23. A 100,000 usd/chf Short from 1.4583 placed at about 11:00 am , that closed at 1.4556 an hour later, provided $185.49 to bring the account from last night's low of 99,514.62 to 99,700 . The remainder of today's profits are entirely attributable to the usd/jpy trades.
Tonight should prove interesting - will the markets experience buyer's remorse and sell the euro , or will such a robust break above parity inspire Euro bulls to begin climbing for 1.0250 ?
I'm watching eur/jpy for a break below 116.5 as an opportunity to short towards 115.
lessons for the day :
stop loss orders are good
chasing interventions downhill is annoying and inefficient - use limit orders instead.
Bal: 100,268.79 ::: P&L: 241.66 + ( 0 )
No Open Trades
Evening Round-up
We're up $268.79 on the account and $241.66 in realized P&L w/ no open trades.
We'd gotten walloped on the 200,000 eur/usd limit order long @ .9995 . I had expected a correction from the 1 - 1.0050 range to either the low .9900's or into the .9800's; the trade was stopped @ 1.0055 ( - $121.00 ) . Rather that retrace , the euro proceeded virtually unabated to 1.0090. It's currently at 1.0040 . The Tokyo and London sessions may push this above 1.01 if the dollar resumes its decline.
Dollar limit orders @ 116.09 (100,000), 115.74 (100,000) , 115.79 (10,000) , which had replaced the original usd/jpy Long trades from the low 117.00's , saved the day by returning $534.61when closed shortly after the close of the NY session for 116.21 and 116.23. A 100,000 usd/chf Short from 1.4583 placed at about 11:00 am , that closed at 1.4556 an hour later, provided $185.49 to bring the account from last night's low of 99,514.62 to 99,700 . The remainder of today's profits are entirely attributable to the usd/jpy trades.
Tonight should prove interesting - will the markets experience buyer's remorse and sell the euro , or will such a robust break above parity inspire Euro bulls to begin climbing for 1.0250 ?
I'm watching eur/jpy for a break below 116.5 as an opportunity to short towards 115.
lessons for the day :
stop loss orders are good
chasing interventions downhill is annoying and inefficient - use limit orders instead.
Bal: 100,268.79 ::: P&L: 241.66 + ( 0 )
No Open Trades
We're up $268.79 on the account and $241.66 in realized P&L w/ no open trades.
We'd gotten walloped on the 200,000 eur/usd limit order long @ .9995 . I had expected a correction from the 1 - 1.0050 range to either the low .9900's or into the .9800's; the trade was stopped @ 1.0055 ( - $121.00 ) . Rather that retrace , the euro proceeded virtually unabated to 1.0090. It's currently at 1.0040 . The Tokyo and London sessions may push this above 1.01 if the dollar resumes its decline.
Dollar limit orders @ 116.09 (100,000), 115.74 (100,000) , 115.79 (10,000) , which had replaced the original usd/jpy Long trades from the low 117.00's , saved the day by returning $534.61when closed shortly after the close of the NY session for 116.21 and 116.23. A 100,000 usd/chf Short from 1.4583 placed at about 11:00 am , that closed at 1.4556 an hour later, provided $185.49 to bring the account from last night's low of 99,514.62 to 99,700 . The remainder of today's profits are entirely attributable to the usd/jpy trades.
Tonight should prove interesting - will the markets experience buyer's remorse and sell the euro , or will such a robust break above parity inspire Euro bulls to begin climbing for 1.0250 ?
I'm watching eur/jpy for a break below 116.5 as an opportunity to short towards 115.
lessons for the day :
stop loss orders are good
chasing interventions downhill is annoying and inefficient - use limit orders instead.
Bal: 100,268.79 ::: P&L: 241.66 + ( 0 )
No Open Trades
Minggu, 14 Juli 2002
more on EU deficits
Euro's Fiscal Instability Pact by Ashraf Laidi Forexnews
The importance of Europe's Stability and Growth Pact has been underlined on Wednesday when the euro lost a full cent against the dollar, despite plummeting US stocks in that session. It can also be seen how currency traders are becoming somewhat apprehensive with the euro through the currency's inability to mimic the strength of the pound against the dollar. Since the inception of the euro, the positive correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD has averaged above the 0.75 suggesting a strong positive relationship between the two European currencies and how they behave against the greenback. Thus, when one strengthens (declines) against the dollar, the other does the same. Yet, over the past 2 weeks, sterling had been powering ahead to fresh 26-month highs against the dollar, while the euro has shown increased hesitancy since hitting 28-month highs against the dollar.
As euro rises to the upper echelons of currency markets, its challenges too will be taken more seriously.
Euro's Fiscal Instability Pact by Ashraf Laidi Forexnews
The importance of Europe's Stability and Growth Pact has been underlined on Wednesday when the euro lost a full cent against the dollar, despite plummeting US stocks in that session. It can also be seen how currency traders are becoming somewhat apprehensive with the euro through the currency's inability to mimic the strength of the pound against the dollar. Since the inception of the euro, the positive correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD has averaged above the 0.75 suggesting a strong positive relationship between the two European currencies and how they behave against the greenback. Thus, when one strengthens (declines) against the dollar, the other does the same. Yet, over the past 2 weeks, sterling had been powering ahead to fresh 26-month highs against the dollar, while the euro has shown increased hesitancy since hitting 28-month highs against the dollar.
As euro rises to the upper echelons of currency markets, its challenges too will be taken more seriously.
more on EU deficits
Euro's Fiscal Instability Pact by Ashraf Laidi Forexnews
The importance of Europe's Stability and Growth Pact has been underlined on Wednesday when the euro lost a full cent against the dollar, despite plummeting US stocks in that session. It can also be seen how currency traders are becoming somewhat apprehensive with the euro through the currency's inability to mimic the strength of the pound against the dollar. Since the inception of the euro, the positive correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD has averaged above the 0.75 suggesting a strong positive relationship between the two European currencies and how they behave against the greenback. Thus, when one strengthens (declines) against the dollar, the other does the same. Yet, over the past 2 weeks, sterling had been powering ahead to fresh 26-month highs against the dollar, while the euro has shown increased hesitancy since hitting 28-month highs against the dollar.
As euro rises to the upper echelons of currency markets, its challenges too will be taken more seriously.
Euro's Fiscal Instability Pact by Ashraf Laidi Forexnews
The importance of Europe's Stability and Growth Pact has been underlined on Wednesday when the euro lost a full cent against the dollar, despite plummeting US stocks in that session. It can also be seen how currency traders are becoming somewhat apprehensive with the euro through the currency's inability to mimic the strength of the pound against the dollar. Since the inception of the euro, the positive correlation between GBP/USD and EUR/USD has averaged above the 0.75 suggesting a strong positive relationship between the two European currencies and how they behave against the greenback. Thus, when one strengthens (declines) against the dollar, the other does the same. Yet, over the past 2 weeks, sterling had been powering ahead to fresh 26-month highs against the dollar, while the euro has shown increased hesitancy since hitting 28-month highs against the dollar.
As euro rises to the upper echelons of currency markets, its challenges too will be taken more seriously.
killed the usd/chf limit order @ 1.4800 and simply sold 7,000 usd/chf from 1.4792 , stop @ 1.4825. The retracement appears to have stalled just below 1.48 and the 8pip spread on usd/chf isn't going to get me to 1.48 without a break up to 1.4805.
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
S 7,000 usd/chf from 1.4792 , stop 1.4825
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
S 7,000 usd/chf from 1.4792 , stop 1.4825
killed the usd/chf limit order @ 1.4800 and simply sold 7,000 usd/chf from 1.4792 , stop @ 1.4825. The retracement appears to have stalled just below 1.48 and the 8pip spread on usd/chf isn't going to get me to 1.48 without a break up to 1.4805.
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
S 7,000 usd/chf from 1.4792 , stop 1.4825
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
S 7,000 usd/chf from 1.4792 , stop 1.4825
The dollar has made a mad dash for 116.5 .
The 5000 usd/jpy long from 117.01 is being closed ( - $16.29 ) and replaced by a limit order 5000 long @ 116.53 . Also , I'm placing a limit order for 15,000 long @ 116.25 in anticipation of an intervention below 116 . It may not even get to 116.25 if the current pace continues , in which case I'll be 20,000 long ( 35,000 otherwise ). The MOF has recently been signalling that their concern is for an 'orderly' realignment , which emphasises rate of change over the absolute levels achieved. If 116.5 is pierced without a significant retracement and targets 116 by the late evening ( EST ), I think they'll act tonight rather than try to fight from 115.7 tomorrow morning.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
The 5000 usd/jpy long from 117.01 is being closed ( - $16.29 ) and replaced by a limit order 5000 long @ 116.53 . Also , I'm placing a limit order for 15,000 long @ 116.25 in anticipation of an intervention below 116 . It may not even get to 116.25 if the current pace continues , in which case I'll be 20,000 long ( 35,000 otherwise ). The MOF has recently been signalling that their concern is for an 'orderly' realignment , which emphasises rate of change over the absolute levels achieved. If 116.5 is pierced without a significant retracement and targets 116 by the late evening ( EST ), I think they'll act tonight rather than try to fight from 115.7 tomorrow morning.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
The dollar has made a mad dash for 116.5 .
The 5000 usd/jpy long from 117.01 is being closed ( - $16.29 ) and replaced by a limit order 5000 long @ 116.53 . Also , I'm placing a limit order for 15,000 long @ 116.25 in anticipation of an intervention below 116 . It may not even get to 116.25 if the current pace continues , in which case I'll be 20,000 long ( 35,000 otherwise ). The MOF has recently been signalling that their concern is for an 'orderly' realignment , which emphasises rate of change over the absolute levels achieved. If 116.5 is pierced without a significant retracement and targets 116 by the late evening ( EST ), I think they'll act tonight rather than try to fight from 115.7 tomorrow morning.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
The 5000 usd/jpy long from 117.01 is being closed ( - $16.29 ) and replaced by a limit order 5000 long @ 116.53 . Also , I'm placing a limit order for 15,000 long @ 116.25 in anticipation of an intervention below 116 . It may not even get to 116.25 if the current pace continues , in which case I'll be 20,000 long ( 35,000 otherwise ). The MOF has recently been signalling that their concern is for an 'orderly' realignment , which emphasises rate of change over the absolute levels achieved. If 116.5 is pierced without a significant retracement and targets 116 by the late evening ( EST ), I think they'll act tonight rather than try to fight from 115.7 tomorrow morning.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
the 10,000 usd/chf short from 1.4851 has taken profit @ 1.4807 ( +29.28 ). There seems to be some momentum behind this move so I've placed a 1hr limit order for 10,000 short from 1.4800 to catch any retracement.
The dollar may be headed to 116.5 again.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
Bal: 100,043.48 ::: P&L: 13.25 + ( 24.99 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 20,000
The dollar may be headed to 116.5 again.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
Bal: 100,043.48 ::: P&L: 13.25 + ( 24.99 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 20,000
the 10,000 usd/chf short from 1.4851 has taken profit @ 1.4807 ( +29.28 ). There seems to be some momentum behind this move so I've placed a 1hr limit order for 10,000 short from 1.4800 to catch any retracement.
The dollar may be headed to 116.5 again.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
Bal: 100,043.48 ::: P&L: 13.25 + ( 24.99 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 20,000
The dollar may be headed to 116.5 again.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
Bal: 100,043.48 ::: P&L: 13.25 + ( 24.99 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 20,000
Parity Update :
I wouldn't be surprised to see parity before thursday. Talk of EC members overthrowing the stability pact seems overdone and doesn't present a real threat to the union. There's likely something else in the water that's undercutting the Euro. My suspicion is that the market had performed an estimation of the viability of the Euro at parity several weeks ago and found it wanting. The deficit situation is a proxy for this sentiment. What , until recently, has been driving the Euro UP is the weight of the dollar going DOWN, not a sudden appreciation for mediocre growth and marginal improvements in domestic demand. I have limit orders in the high .9990's to short 20,000 units with a target of .9800 , stop 1.0055
I wouldn't be surprised to see parity before thursday. Talk of EC members overthrowing the stability pact seems overdone and doesn't present a real threat to the union. There's likely something else in the water that's undercutting the Euro. My suspicion is that the market had performed an estimation of the viability of the Euro at parity several weeks ago and found it wanting. The deficit situation is a proxy for this sentiment. What , until recently, has been driving the Euro UP is the weight of the dollar going DOWN, not a sudden appreciation for mediocre growth and marginal improvements in domestic demand. I have limit orders in the high .9990's to short 20,000 units with a target of .9800 , stop 1.0055
Parity Update :
I wouldn't be surprised to see parity before thursday. Talk of EC members overthrowing the stability pact seems overdone and doesn't present a real threat to the union. There's likely something else in the water that's undercutting the Euro. My suspicion is that the market had performed an estimation of the viability of the Euro at parity several weeks ago and found it wanting. The deficit situation is a proxy for this sentiment. What , until recently, has been driving the Euro UP is the weight of the dollar going DOWN, not a sudden appreciation for mediocre growth and marginal improvements in domestic demand. I have limit orders in the high .9990's to short 20,000 units with a target of .9800 , stop 1.0055
I wouldn't be surprised to see parity before thursday. Talk of EC members overthrowing the stability pact seems overdone and doesn't present a real threat to the union. There's likely something else in the water that's undercutting the Euro. My suspicion is that the market had performed an estimation of the viability of the Euro at parity several weeks ago and found it wanting. The deficit situation is a proxy for this sentiment. What , until recently, has been driving the Euro UP is the weight of the dollar going DOWN, not a sudden appreciation for mediocre growth and marginal improvements in domestic demand. I have limit orders in the high .9990's to short 20,000 units with a target of .9800 , stop 1.0055
The monday session has begun and the account stands at $100,013.80 with -4.73 in realized , and 52.00 in unrealized, profits; we're up $47.27 from trading returns. OANDA pays interest daily which is why you're seeing interest contributions so frequently. We're carrying the same trades as the end of trading Friday.
This week will probably end with usd/jpy below 117 even if there is an intervention. I have the suspicion that 115 has already been discounted by the market. Once 116.50 is broken there may not be any real resistance prior to 115.50 and then 115. I'm sure that there are all sorts of technical levels in between , but these never seem to matter against conventional wisdom. The intervention target has been revised down multiple times and may now stand below 116. I'll accumulate incrementally from 116.5 , but will likely be closing my current usd/jpy trades from above 116.80 if we see a move above 117 tonight.
This week will probably end with usd/jpy below 117 even if there is an intervention. I have the suspicion that 115 has already been discounted by the market. Once 116.50 is broken there may not be any real resistance prior to 115.50 and then 115. I'm sure that there are all sorts of technical levels in between , but these never seem to matter against conventional wisdom. The intervention target has been revised down multiple times and may now stand below 116. I'll accumulate incrementally from 116.5 , but will likely be closing my current usd/jpy trades from above 116.80 if we see a move above 117 tonight.
The monday session has begun and the account stands at $100,013.80 with -4.73 in realized , and 52.00 in unrealized, profits; we're up $47.27 from trading returns. OANDA pays interest daily which is why you're seeing interest contributions so frequently. We're carrying the same trades as the end of trading Friday.
This week will probably end with usd/jpy below 117 even if there is an intervention. I have the suspicion that 115 has already been discounted by the market. Once 116.50 is broken there may not be any real resistance prior to 115.50 and then 115. I'm sure that there are all sorts of technical levels in between , but these never seem to matter against conventional wisdom. The intervention target has been revised down multiple times and may now stand below 116. I'll accumulate incrementally from 116.5 , but will likely be closing my current usd/jpy trades from above 116.80 if we see a move above 117 tonight.
This week will probably end with usd/jpy below 117 even if there is an intervention. I have the suspicion that 115 has already been discounted by the market. Once 116.50 is broken there may not be any real resistance prior to 115.50 and then 115. I'm sure that there are all sorts of technical levels in between , but these never seem to matter against conventional wisdom. The intervention target has been revised down multiple times and may now stand below 116. I'll accumulate incrementally from 116.5 , but will likely be closing my current usd/jpy trades from above 116.80 if we see a move above 117 tonight.
The Eye of the Storm ?
August 14th is the SEC deadline for the largest publically traded US corporations to certify the accuracy and completeness of their annual financial reports. This could result in a spate of releases by major corporations over the next month acknowledging newfound revisions in costs , margins, and earnings. Things could get very ugly very quickly - the good news being that after the 14th the worst of this mess may be over.
August 14th is the SEC deadline for the largest publically traded US corporations to certify the accuracy and completeness of their annual financial reports. This could result in a spate of releases by major corporations over the next month acknowledging newfound revisions in costs , margins, and earnings. Things could get very ugly very quickly - the good news being that after the 14th the worst of this mess may be over.
The Eye of the Storm ?
August 14th is the SEC deadline for the largest publically traded US corporations to certify the accuracy and completeness of their annual financial reports. This could result in a spate of releases by major corporations over the next month acknowledging newfound revisions in costs , margins, and earnings. Things could get very ugly very quickly - the good news being that after the 14th the worst of this mess may be over.
August 14th is the SEC deadline for the largest publically traded US corporations to certify the accuracy and completeness of their annual financial reports. This could result in a spate of releases by major corporations over the next month acknowledging newfound revisions in costs , margins, and earnings. Things could get very ugly very quickly - the good news being that after the 14th the worst of this mess may be over.
Forexnews :
from European FX Held by Dollar by Leeanne Su
Next week will see important key indicators from the U.S. Markets will be waiting for the Industrial Production figure and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to the Senate on July 16. Leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released on July 18, followed by Consumer Price Index and International Trade on July 19th. From the Eurozone, indicators include German CPI and HICP, Eurozone HCIP, and Eurozone Industrial Production. The BoJ's monthly meeting will also take place next week, where a discussion of the government's upgrade of economic conditions is likely.
+ more on the shifting tides of MOF sentiment , politics and the EC stability pact ,and the significance of 115.75.
from European FX Held by Dollar by Leeanne Su
Next week will see important key indicators from the U.S. Markets will be waiting for the Industrial Production figure and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to the Senate on July 16. Leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released on July 18, followed by Consumer Price Index and International Trade on July 19th. From the Eurozone, indicators include German CPI and HICP, Eurozone HCIP, and Eurozone Industrial Production. The BoJ's monthly meeting will also take place next week, where a discussion of the government's upgrade of economic conditions is likely.
+ more on the shifting tides of MOF sentiment , politics and the EC stability pact ,and the significance of 115.75.
Forexnews :
from European FX Held by Dollar by Leeanne Su
Next week will see important key indicators from the U.S. Markets will be waiting for the Industrial Production figure and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to the Senate on July 16. Leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released on July 18, followed by Consumer Price Index and International Trade on July 19th. From the Eurozone, indicators include German CPI and HICP, Eurozone HCIP, and Eurozone Industrial Production. The BoJ's monthly meeting will also take place next week, where a discussion of the government's upgrade of economic conditions is likely.
+ more on the shifting tides of MOF sentiment , politics and the EC stability pact ,and the significance of 115.75.
from European FX Held by Dollar by Leeanne Su
Next week will see important key indicators from the U.S. Markets will be waiting for the Industrial Production figure and Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to the Senate on July 16. Leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released on July 18, followed by Consumer Price Index and International Trade on July 19th. From the Eurozone, indicators include German CPI and HICP, Eurozone HCIP, and Eurozone Industrial Production. The BoJ's monthly meeting will also take place next week, where a discussion of the government's upgrade of economic conditions is likely.
+ more on the shifting tides of MOF sentiment , politics and the EC stability pact ,and the significance of 115.75.
Shiokawa Confusion Update :
Minister Shiokawa has once again confounded the markets by stating ..
"A recent survey of corporations said a dollar range of 125-135 yen was favourable, and I think that is obvious. (The current rate) is moving a bit beyond that,"
"The dollar at 125-135 yen would be a good area for the Japanese economy."
"Stock prices have been falling not because of concerns over earnings, but because firms were misbehaving"
...after having implied that a fall to 115 was anticipated.
He has now clarified those comments , stating that they were intended to impress that the dollar should NOT be allowed to fall that far. Other comments , reported by Reuters on July 14th , confirm that O'Neill is still promoting the US 'strong dollar' position and 3+ percent GDP growth in the near term. Shiokawa acknowledged that allowing the dollar to weaken considerably would dampen Japan's growth prospects , which have been upgraded for the fourth time in five months.
Minister Shiokawa has once again confounded the markets by stating ..
"A recent survey of corporations said a dollar range of 125-135 yen was favourable, and I think that is obvious. (The current rate) is moving a bit beyond that,"
"The dollar at 125-135 yen would be a good area for the Japanese economy."
"Stock prices have been falling not because of concerns over earnings, but because firms were misbehaving"
...after having implied that a fall to 115 was anticipated.
He has now clarified those comments , stating that they were intended to impress that the dollar should NOT be allowed to fall that far. Other comments , reported by Reuters on July 14th , confirm that O'Neill is still promoting the US 'strong dollar' position and 3+ percent GDP growth in the near term. Shiokawa acknowledged that allowing the dollar to weaken considerably would dampen Japan's growth prospects , which have been upgraded for the fourth time in five months.
Shiokawa Confusion Update :
Minister Shiokawa has once again confounded the markets by stating ..
"A recent survey of corporations said a dollar range of 125-135 yen was favourable, and I think that is obvious. (The current rate) is moving a bit beyond that,"
"The dollar at 125-135 yen would be a good area for the Japanese economy."
"Stock prices have been falling not because of concerns over earnings, but because firms were misbehaving"
...after having implied that a fall to 115 was anticipated.
He has now clarified those comments , stating that they were intended to impress that the dollar should NOT be allowed to fall that far. Other comments , reported by Reuters on July 14th , confirm that O'Neill is still promoting the US 'strong dollar' position and 3+ percent GDP growth in the near term. Shiokawa acknowledged that allowing the dollar to weaken considerably would dampen Japan's growth prospects , which have been upgraded for the fourth time in five months.
Minister Shiokawa has once again confounded the markets by stating ..
"A recent survey of corporations said a dollar range of 125-135 yen was favourable, and I think that is obvious. (The current rate) is moving a bit beyond that,"
"The dollar at 125-135 yen would be a good area for the Japanese economy."
"Stock prices have been falling not because of concerns over earnings, but because firms were misbehaving"
...after having implied that a fall to 115 was anticipated.
He has now clarified those comments , stating that they were intended to impress that the dollar should NOT be allowed to fall that far. Other comments , reported by Reuters on July 14th , confirm that O'Neill is still promoting the US 'strong dollar' position and 3+ percent GDP growth in the near term. Shiokawa acknowledged that allowing the dollar to weaken considerably would dampen Japan's growth prospects , which have been upgraded for the fourth time in five months.
Jumat, 12 Juli 2002
Shorting usd/chf paid off nicely @ 1.4802 ($40.54), bringing the account back up to 100,000 . The usd/jpy 10,000 limit order @ 116.55 was activated and now stands 28pips ahead.
I've been trading more frequently that I usually do. Once the intervention threat has passed I'll probably ride the dollar the rest of the way to 115. The Euro at parity could become range bound for several months between either .9800 and 1 or 1 and 1.02 depending on where the dollar is in the next month or so.
Account Update :
Bal: 100,004.07 ::: P&L: -4.73 + ( 27.14 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 10,000, CHF 14,851
* OANDA paid app. $4.00 in interest at 4pm.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
short 10,000 usd/chf from .1.4851 , stop 1.875 , tp 1.4807
I've been trading more frequently that I usually do. Once the intervention threat has passed I'll probably ride the dollar the rest of the way to 115. The Euro at parity could become range bound for several months between either .9800 and 1 or 1 and 1.02 depending on where the dollar is in the next month or so.
Account Update :
Bal: 100,004.07 ::: P&L: -4.73 + ( 27.14 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 10,000, CHF 14,851
* OANDA paid app. $4.00 in interest at 4pm.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
short 10,000 usd/chf from .1.4851 , stop 1.875 , tp 1.4807
Shorting usd/chf paid off nicely @ 1.4802 ($40.54), bringing the account back up to 100,000 . The usd/jpy 10,000 limit order @ 116.55 was activated and now stands 28pips ahead.
I've been trading more frequently that I usually do. Once the intervention threat has passed I'll probably ride the dollar the rest of the way to 115. The Euro at parity could become range bound for several months between either .9800 and 1 or 1 and 1.02 depending on where the dollar is in the next month or so.
Account Update :
Bal: 100,004.07 ::: P&L: -4.73 + ( 27.14 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 10,000, CHF 14,851
* OANDA paid app. $4.00 in interest at 4pm.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
short 10,000 usd/chf from .1.4851 , stop 1.875 , tp 1.4807
I've been trading more frequently that I usually do. Once the intervention threat has passed I'll probably ride the dollar the rest of the way to 115. The Euro at parity could become range bound for several months between either .9800 and 1 or 1 and 1.02 depending on where the dollar is in the next month or so.
Account Update :
Bal: 100,004.07 ::: P&L: -4.73 + ( 27.14 )
short JPY 2,334,450 ::: long USD 10,000, CHF 14,851
* OANDA paid app. $4.00 in interest at 4pm.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop 115.80, tp 117.80
short 10,000 usd/chf from .1.4851 , stop 1.875 , tp 1.4807
Kamis, 11 Juli 2002
I think that usd/chf is about to move back towards 1.48 , usd/jpy looks poised to move as well .
I'm going to take the 14pip loss on the 10,000 usd/jpy short and set a limit order at 116.55 for this amount.
short 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854, stop 1.4875, tp 1.48
The usd/chf and usd/jpy are likely to move in unison , though not by the same amount. I'm hoping to dampen my losses on the usd/jpy trades w/ gains from the usd/chf 's . I'll be sure to trim my stops on the usd/chf as its move progresses.
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop 116.80, tp 117.50
S 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop .9910, tp .9850
S 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854 , stop 1.4875
I'm going to take the 14pip loss on the 10,000 usd/jpy short and set a limit order at 116.55 for this amount.
short 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854, stop 1.4875, tp 1.48
The usd/chf and usd/jpy are likely to move in unison , though not by the same amount. I'm hoping to dampen my losses on the usd/jpy trades w/ gains from the usd/chf 's . I'll be sure to trim my stops on the usd/chf as its move progresses.
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop 116.80, tp 117.50
S 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop .9910, tp .9850
S 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854 , stop 1.4875
I think that usd/chf is about to move back towards 1.48 , usd/jpy looks poised to move as well .
I'm going to take the 14pip loss on the 10,000 usd/jpy short and set a limit order at 116.55 for this amount.
short 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854, stop 1.4875, tp 1.48
The usd/chf and usd/jpy are likely to move in unison , though not by the same amount. I'm hoping to dampen my losses on the usd/jpy trades w/ gains from the usd/chf 's . I'll be sure to trim my stops on the usd/chf as its move progresses.
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop 116.80, tp 117.50
S 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop .9910, tp .9850
S 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854 , stop 1.4875
I'm going to take the 14pip loss on the 10,000 usd/jpy short and set a limit order at 116.55 for this amount.
short 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854, stop 1.4875, tp 1.48
The usd/chf and usd/jpy are likely to move in unison , though not by the same amount. I'm hoping to dampen my losses on the usd/jpy trades w/ gains from the usd/chf 's . I'll be sure to trim my stops on the usd/chf as its move progresses.
current trades :
L 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop 116.35, tp 117.80
L 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop 116.80, tp 117.50
S 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop .9910, tp .9850
S 10,000 usd/chf from 1.4854 , stop 1.4875
Intervention Update :
Forexnews :
Japan FinMin Shiokawa says appropriate action must be considered against forex volatility. Shiokawa adds dollar-yen moves appear to be slowing compared with 2-weeks ago. He also states that most important exchange rate for Japan is dollar-yen.
7/11/2002 8:35:00 PM Japan MoF's Muto says decisive action on forex will be taken if needed, adds that forex moves will be monitored very closely.
Vice Administrative Finance Minister Toshiro Muto said this morning that the ministry is watching the foreign exchange market "very carefully" and is ready to take decisive action if necessary. "The current weak dollar is partly affected by the US economic situation but it is important that the forex market to reflect correctly Japanese economic fundamentals," Muto said. Fukuya said that "there`s still downside risk in the currency market to 113 yen or so. The US depreciation cannot be stopped if there`s no stockmarket
rebound." Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami warned yesterday that the dollar may be sold off worldwide in view of the US deficits in terms of both the finance and trade accounts. He said the current weakness of the dollar resembled its instability in the 1960s and 1970s when the US was dogged by the "twin deficits".
.. but will it be coordinated ?
7/11/2002 7:28:00 PM ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos, EU Commissioner Solbes, and Danish FinMin Peterson issued a joint statement saying the euro's rise in forex markets is welcome, and adding that a strong euro is in the interest of the euro area.
Forexnews :
Japan FinMin Shiokawa says appropriate action must be considered against forex volatility. Shiokawa adds dollar-yen moves appear to be slowing compared with 2-weeks ago. He also states that most important exchange rate for Japan is dollar-yen.
7/11/2002 8:35:00 PM Japan MoF's Muto says decisive action on forex will be taken if needed, adds that forex moves will be monitored very closely.
Vice Administrative Finance Minister Toshiro Muto said this morning that the ministry is watching the foreign exchange market "very carefully" and is ready to take decisive action if necessary. "The current weak dollar is partly affected by the US economic situation but it is important that the forex market to reflect correctly Japanese economic fundamentals," Muto said. Fukuya said that "there`s still downside risk in the currency market to 113 yen or so. The US depreciation cannot be stopped if there`s no stockmarket
rebound." Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami warned yesterday that the dollar may be sold off worldwide in view of the US deficits in terms of both the finance and trade accounts. He said the current weakness of the dollar resembled its instability in the 1960s and 1970s when the US was dogged by the "twin deficits".
.. but will it be coordinated ?
7/11/2002 7:28:00 PM ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos, EU Commissioner Solbes, and Danish FinMin Peterson issued a joint statement saying the euro's rise in forex markets is welcome, and adding that a strong euro is in the interest of the euro area.
Intervention Update :
Forexnews :
Japan FinMin Shiokawa says appropriate action must be considered against forex volatility. Shiokawa adds dollar-yen moves appear to be slowing compared with 2-weeks ago. He also states that most important exchange rate for Japan is dollar-yen.
7/11/2002 8:35:00 PM Japan MoF's Muto says decisive action on forex will be taken if needed, adds that forex moves will be monitored very closely.
Vice Administrative Finance Minister Toshiro Muto said this morning that the ministry is watching the foreign exchange market "very carefully" and is ready to take decisive action if necessary. "The current weak dollar is partly affected by the US economic situation but it is important that the forex market to reflect correctly Japanese economic fundamentals," Muto said. Fukuya said that "there`s still downside risk in the currency market to 113 yen or so. The US depreciation cannot be stopped if there`s no stockmarket
rebound." Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami warned yesterday that the dollar may be sold off worldwide in view of the US deficits in terms of both the finance and trade accounts. He said the current weakness of the dollar resembled its instability in the 1960s and 1970s when the US was dogged by the "twin deficits".
.. but will it be coordinated ?
7/11/2002 7:28:00 PM ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos, EU Commissioner Solbes, and Danish FinMin Peterson issued a joint statement saying the euro's rise in forex markets is welcome, and adding that a strong euro is in the interest of the euro area.
Forexnews :
Japan FinMin Shiokawa says appropriate action must be considered against forex volatility. Shiokawa adds dollar-yen moves appear to be slowing compared with 2-weeks ago. He also states that most important exchange rate for Japan is dollar-yen.
7/11/2002 8:35:00 PM Japan MoF's Muto says decisive action on forex will be taken if needed, adds that forex moves will be monitored very closely.
Vice Administrative Finance Minister Toshiro Muto said this morning that the ministry is watching the foreign exchange market "very carefully" and is ready to take decisive action if necessary. "The current weak dollar is partly affected by the US economic situation but it is important that the forex market to reflect correctly Japanese economic fundamentals," Muto said. Fukuya said that "there`s still downside risk in the currency market to 113 yen or so. The US depreciation cannot be stopped if there`s no stockmarket
rebound." Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami warned yesterday that the dollar may be sold off worldwide in view of the US deficits in terms of both the finance and trade accounts. He said the current weakness of the dollar resembled its instability in the 1960s and 1970s when the US was dogged by the "twin deficits".
.. but will it be coordinated ?
7/11/2002 7:28:00 PM ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos, EU Commissioner Solbes, and Danish FinMin Peterson issued a joint statement saying the euro's rise in forex markets is welcome, and adding that a strong euro is in the interest of the euro area.
something interesting is happening on usd/jpy - could this be a move to 117.50 ? The limit order @ 17.00 has been activated and we're up $9.00 on the USD trades. I'm shorting 2000 eur/usd in anticipation of a fall to .9850 , stop @ .9910 .
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop@ 116.80, tp@ 117.50
short 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop@ .9910, tp@ .9850
Bal: 99,989.16 ::: P&L: -14.93 + ( 10.28 )
short JPY 2,338,950 EUR 2000 ::: long USD 21,976.20
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop@ 116.80, tp@ 117.50
short 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop@ .9910, tp@ .9850
Bal: 99,989.16 ::: P&L: -14.93 + ( 10.28 )
short JPY 2,338,950 EUR 2000 ::: long USD 21,976.20
something interesting is happening on usd/jpy - could this be a move to 117.50 ? The limit order @ 17.00 has been activated and we're up $9.00 on the USD trades. I'm shorting 2000 eur/usd in anticipation of a fall to .9850 , stop @ .9910 .
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop@ 116.80, tp@ 117.50
short 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop@ .9910, tp@ .9850
Bal: 99,989.16 ::: P&L: -14.93 + ( 10.28 )
short JPY 2,338,950 EUR 2000 ::: long USD 21,976.20
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop@ 116.35, tp@ 117.80
long 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.00 , stop@ 116.80, tp@ 117.50
short 2000 eur/usd from .9881 , stop@ .9910, tp@ .9850
Bal: 99,989.16 ::: P&L: -14.93 + ( 10.28 )
short JPY 2,338,950 EUR 2000 ::: long USD 21,976.20
Foiled again
The usd/chf has stopped out and appears to be headed safely above 1.48 . One thing I've noticed about this pair is that its volatility is often manifest in unusually rapid advances and declines to the end of a given range followed by a quick and deep reversal. This pattern is evident on both 30 and 5 minute charts. Perhaps there's a structural component associated with the CHF v. EUR correlation ?
The importance of sticky numbers
last nights short eur/jpy trade is still irking me. I'd set the stop for 116.45 from 116.24. This had been tripped by a brief spike at about 2:20 that didn't penetrate 116.50 . This is one of those mistakes that leave you wonder what you could have possibly been thinking . The .5 level is a natural barrier, and another 10 pips - to 116.55 , would have bought more protection than the first 21 I'd allocated.
The usd/chf has stopped out and appears to be headed safely above 1.48 . One thing I've noticed about this pair is that its volatility is often manifest in unusually rapid advances and declines to the end of a given range followed by a quick and deep reversal. This pattern is evident on both 30 and 5 minute charts. Perhaps there's a structural component associated with the CHF v. EUR correlation ?
The importance of sticky numbers
last nights short eur/jpy trade is still irking me. I'd set the stop for 116.45 from 116.24. This had been tripped by a brief spike at about 2:20 that didn't penetrate 116.50 . This is one of those mistakes that leave you wonder what you could have possibly been thinking . The .5 level is a natural barrier, and another 10 pips - to 116.55 , would have bought more protection than the first 21 I'd allocated.
Foiled again
The usd/chf has stopped out and appears to be headed safely above 1.48 . One thing I've noticed about this pair is that its volatility is often manifest in unusually rapid advances and declines to the end of a given range followed by a quick and deep reversal. This pattern is evident on both 30 and 5 minute charts. Perhaps there's a structural component associated with the CHF v. EUR correlation ?
The importance of sticky numbers
last nights short eur/jpy trade is still irking me. I'd set the stop for 116.45 from 116.24. This had been tripped by a brief spike at about 2:20 that didn't penetrate 116.50 . This is one of those mistakes that leave you wonder what you could have possibly been thinking . The .5 level is a natural barrier, and another 10 pips - to 116.55 , would have bought more protection than the first 21 I'd allocated.
The usd/chf has stopped out and appears to be headed safely above 1.48 . One thing I've noticed about this pair is that its volatility is often manifest in unusually rapid advances and declines to the end of a given range followed by a quick and deep reversal. This pattern is evident on both 30 and 5 minute charts. Perhaps there's a structural component associated with the CHF v. EUR correlation ?
The importance of sticky numbers
last nights short eur/jpy trade is still irking me. I'd set the stop for 116.45 from 116.24. This had been tripped by a brief spike at about 2:20 that didn't penetrate 116.50 . This is one of those mistakes that leave you wonder what you could have possibly been thinking . The .5 level is a natural barrier, and another 10 pips - to 116.55 , would have bought more protection than the first 21 I'd allocated.
I've been anticipating the usd/chf to decline to 1.4750 for several days. It looks as though another attempt is being made so we're going short 5000 usd/jpy from 1.4801, stop @ 1.4825 ( I don't want to get caught in an updraft as the session closes ).
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -2.00 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 5,000 , CHF 7,400.50
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -2.00 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 5,000 , CHF 7,400.50
I've been anticipating the usd/chf to decline to 1.4750 for several days. It looks as though another attempt is being made so we're going short 5000 usd/jpy from 1.4801, stop @ 1.4825 ( I don't want to get caught in an updraft as the session closes ).
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -2.00 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 5,000 , CHF 7,400.50
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -2.00 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 5,000 , CHF 7,400.50
I've taken profit on the Long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.55 for 24pips. If there are futher significant declines today, they'll likely occur in the Tokyo a/o London sessions. I'm intending to hunt for futher buying opportunities around 116.5 .
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , prof @ 117.5
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -6.42 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 10,000
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , prof @ 117.5
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -6.42 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 10,000
I've taken profit on the Long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.55 for 24pips. If there are futher significant declines today, they'll likely occur in the Tokyo a/o London sessions. I'm intending to hunt for futher buying opportunities around 116.5 .
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , prof @ 117.5
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -6.42 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 10,000
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, prof @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , prof @ 117.5
Bal: 99,993.00 ::: P&L: -6.83 + ( -6.42 )
short JPY 1,168,950 ::: long USD 10,000
thoughts for the day
Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwads & Sons.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The dollar has actually been doing better over the past couple of days than the stock market which might be an encouraging sign that foreign investors think our market is getting cheap."
Monica Fan, senior currency strategist at Bank of America.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Dollar sentiment still dominates and it's extremely negative. I expect to see much more bad news about corporate governance in the U.S."
Rob Hayward, senior foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The failure to break higher in the euro yesterday has caused profit-taking -- there is a lot of defence of options positions around parity...There is a threat of intervention in dollar/yen, although the market is gradually grinding lower."
Adam Cole, strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The case for holding the dollar is getting weaker. Downward pressure on the dollar is not over in the longer term."
Tomomasa Noguchi, foreign exchange manager at Mitsubishi Corp.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Unless U.S. share prices stabilise, it's just uncomfortable to buy dollars."
Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwads & Sons.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The dollar has actually been doing better over the past couple of days than the stock market which might be an encouraging sign that foreign investors think our market is getting cheap."
Monica Fan, senior currency strategist at Bank of America.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Dollar sentiment still dominates and it's extremely negative. I expect to see much more bad news about corporate governance in the U.S."
Rob Hayward, senior foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The failure to break higher in the euro yesterday has caused profit-taking -- there is a lot of defence of options positions around parity...There is a threat of intervention in dollar/yen, although the market is gradually grinding lower."
Adam Cole, strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The case for holding the dollar is getting weaker. Downward pressure on the dollar is not over in the longer term."
Tomomasa Noguchi, foreign exchange manager at Mitsubishi Corp.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Unless U.S. share prices stabilise, it's just uncomfortable to buy dollars."
thoughts for the day
Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwads & Sons.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The dollar has actually been doing better over the past couple of days than the stock market which might be an encouraging sign that foreign investors think our market is getting cheap."
Monica Fan, senior currency strategist at Bank of America.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Dollar sentiment still dominates and it's extremely negative. I expect to see much more bad news about corporate governance in the U.S."
Rob Hayward, senior foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The failure to break higher in the euro yesterday has caused profit-taking -- there is a lot of defence of options positions around parity...There is a threat of intervention in dollar/yen, although the market is gradually grinding lower."
Adam Cole, strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The case for holding the dollar is getting weaker. Downward pressure on the dollar is not over in the longer term."
Tomomasa Noguchi, foreign exchange manager at Mitsubishi Corp.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Unless U.S. share prices stabilise, it's just uncomfortable to buy dollars."
Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwads & Sons.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The dollar has actually been doing better over the past couple of days than the stock market which might be an encouraging sign that foreign investors think our market is getting cheap."
Monica Fan, senior currency strategist at Bank of America.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Dollar sentiment still dominates and it's extremely negative. I expect to see much more bad news about corporate governance in the U.S."
Rob Hayward, senior foreign exchange strategist at ABN Amro.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The failure to break higher in the euro yesterday has caused profit-taking -- there is a lot of defence of options positions around parity...There is a threat of intervention in dollar/yen, although the market is gradually grinding lower."
Adam Cole, strategist at Credit Agricole Indosuez.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"The case for holding the dollar is getting weaker. Downward pressure on the dollar is not over in the longer term."
Tomomasa Noguchi, foreign exchange manager at Mitsubishi Corp.
Thursday, July 11, 2002
"Unless U.S. share prices stabilise, it's just uncomfortable to buy dollars."
I don't think that anyone has assumed that these interventions were more than firebreaks against too rapid a realignment of the dollar , but they stand to lose what little impact they've had if not enforced evenly. The series prior to the past two had been weak 100+ pip strikes that had been absorbed and returned within a few hours. These were apparently unsterilized as well ( ie. the direct purchase of dollars wasn't offset by counterpositions in alternate assets , such as bonds ) , which should have amplified their impact. The latest rounds have been coordinated, but no more effective. The threat of a prolonged coordinated intervention climate should have provided more stability than it has. Perhaps the US administration's ambivalence regarding the strong dollar , lack of eur/jpy correlation , and the generally foul odors emitted by US equity markets were compelling enough to inspire the BOJ, and most others, to accept a 115 dollar as inevitable ? For a good discussion of the mechanics of interventions check out this thread on Wilmott.com
I don't think that anyone has assumed that these interventions were more than firebreaks against too rapid a realignment of the dollar , but they stand to lose what little impact they've had if not enforced evenly. The series prior to the past two had been weak 100+ pip strikes that had been absorbed and returned within a few hours. These were apparently unsterilized as well ( ie. the direct purchase of dollars wasn't offset by counterpositions in alternate assets , such as bonds ) , which should have amplified their impact. The latest rounds have been coordinated, but no more effective. The threat of a prolonged coordinated intervention climate should have provided more stability than it has. Perhaps the US administration's ambivalence regarding the strong dollar , lack of eur/jpy correlation , and the generally foul odors emitted by US equity markets were compelling enough to inspire the BOJ, and most others, to accept a 115 dollar as inevitable ? For a good discussion of the mechanics of interventions check out this thread on Wilmott.com
Economics 101
Chicago Fed Midwest Manuf. Index rose 0.3% to 150.7 in May vs. 150.2 in April.
PPI
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods edged up 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This slight increase followed decreases of 0.4 percent in May and 0.2 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, the intermediate goods index moved up 0.2 percent, following a 0.5-percent decline in May. Prices for crude goods turned down 3.6 percent in June, after increasing 1.7 percent in the previous month.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 403,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 393,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending June 29, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 29 was 3,639,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,672,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,685,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,712,500.
Chicago Fed Midwest Manuf. Index rose 0.3% to 150.7 in May vs. 150.2 in April.
PPI
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods edged up 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This slight increase followed decreases of 0.4 percent in May and 0.2 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, the intermediate goods index moved up 0.2 percent, following a 0.5-percent decline in May. Prices for crude goods turned down 3.6 percent in June, after increasing 1.7 percent in the previous month.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 403,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 393,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending June 29, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 29 was 3,639,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,672,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,685,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,712,500.
Economics 101
Chicago Fed Midwest Manuf. Index rose 0.3% to 150.7 in May vs. 150.2 in April.
PPI
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods edged up 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This slight increase followed decreases of 0.4 percent in May and 0.2 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, the intermediate goods index moved up 0.2 percent, following a 0.5-percent decline in May. Prices for crude goods turned down 3.6 percent in June, after increasing 1.7 percent in the previous month.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 403,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 393,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending June 29, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 29 was 3,639,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,672,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,685,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,712,500.
Chicago Fed Midwest Manuf. Index rose 0.3% to 150.7 in May vs. 150.2 in April.
PPI
The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods edged up 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This slight increase followed decreases of 0.4 percent in May and 0.2 percent in April. At the earlier stages of processing, the intermediate goods index moved up 0.2 percent, following a 0.5-percent decline in May. Prices for crude goods turned down 3.6 percent in June, after increasing 1.7 percent in the previous month.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending July 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 403,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average of 393,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.8 percent for the week ending June 29, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 29 was 3,639,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,672,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,685,500, a decrease of 27,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,712,500.
excuse my delay in posting , Blogger had been down most of the morning.
I've added long usd/jpy orders from 117.01, 116.35 & 116.10 , 5000 units each. A limit order long 10,000 usd/jpy has been placed at 117, profiting @ 117.50, in hopes of catching an intervention as it penetrates the 117 level.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop @ 116.10, profit @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , profit @ 117.5
Bal: 99,982.28 ::: P&L: -17.53 + ( -21.87 )
short JPY 1,751,700 ::: long USD 15,000
I've added long usd/jpy orders from 117.01, 116.35 & 116.10 , 5000 units each. A limit order long 10,000 usd/jpy has been placed at 117, profiting @ 117.50, in hopes of catching an intervention as it penetrates the 117 level.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop @ 116.10, profit @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , profit @ 117.5
Bal: 99,982.28 ::: P&L: -17.53 + ( -21.87 )
short JPY 1,751,700 ::: long USD 15,000
excuse my delay in posting , Blogger had been down most of the morning.
I've added long usd/jpy orders from 117.01, 116.35 & 116.10 , 5000 units each. A limit order long 10,000 usd/jpy has been placed at 117, profiting @ 117.50, in hopes of catching an intervention as it penetrates the 117 level.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop @ 116.10, profit @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , profit @ 117.5
Bal: 99,982.28 ::: P&L: -17.53 + ( -21.87 )
short JPY 1,751,700 ::: long USD 15,000
I've added long usd/jpy orders from 117.01, 116.35 & 116.10 , 5000 units each. A limit order long 10,000 usd/jpy has been placed at 117, profiting @ 117.50, in hopes of catching an intervention as it penetrates the 117 level.
current trades :
long 5000 usd/jpy from 117.01 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.78 , stop @ 116.35, profit @ 117.80
long 5000 usd/jpy from 116.55 , stop @ 116.10, profit @ 117.80
Limit Order long 10,000 from 117 , stop @ 116.80 , profit @ 117.5
Bal: 99,982.28 ::: P&L: -17.53 + ( -21.87 )
short JPY 1,751,700 ::: long USD 15,000
Dancing with the devil in the pale moon light
!!!! The Dow is @ 8,748.84 , usd/jpy's making a bee line for 116.5. IMO the Japanese stand to damage their credibility of they don't take action past 116.50. If you're going to identify specific levels then you have to act on them.
The usd/jpy 15k long has stopped @ 116.85 ( - $44.00 ) . I've added 5000 @ 116.78 , so my current trades are both 5000 long USD from 116.78 & 117.01 . I'll add again @ 116.5?
!!!! The Dow is @ 8,748.84 , usd/jpy's making a bee line for 116.5. IMO the Japanese stand to damage their credibility of they don't take action past 116.50. If you're going to identify specific levels then you have to act on them.
The usd/jpy 15k long has stopped @ 116.85 ( - $44.00 ) . I've added 5000 @ 116.78 , so my current trades are both 5000 long USD from 116.78 & 117.01 . I'll add again @ 116.5?
Dancing with the devil in the pale moon light
!!!! The Dow is @ 8,748.84 , usd/jpy's making a bee line for 116.5. IMO the Japanese stand to damage their credibility of they don't take action past 116.50. If you're going to identify specific levels then you have to act on them.
The usd/jpy 15k long has stopped @ 116.85 ( - $44.00 ) . I've added 5000 @ 116.78 , so my current trades are both 5000 long USD from 116.78 & 117.01 . I'll add again @ 116.5?
!!!! The Dow is @ 8,748.84 , usd/jpy's making a bee line for 116.5. IMO the Japanese stand to damage their credibility of they don't take action past 116.50. If you're going to identify specific levels then you have to act on them.
The usd/jpy 15k long has stopped @ 116.85 ( - $44.00 ) . I've added 5000 @ 116.78 , so my current trades are both 5000 long USD from 116.78 & 117.01 . I'll add again @ 116.5?
Both the usd/jpy and eur/usd trades closed successfully at 117.23 & .9855 . Factoring the lost eur/jpy trade , which would have done very well if I'd placed my stop properly , we're net $27.40 .
I'd placed a limit order @ 117.12 for 15,000 long , which has activated , and will add to this position @ the 117.00 mark.
current trades :
long usd/jpy from 117.20 , stop @ 116.85 , profit @ 118.5
Bal: 100,027.09 ::: P&L: 27.40 + ( -14.09 )
short JPY 1,758,000 ::: long USD 15,000
I'd placed a limit order @ 117.12 for 15,000 long , which has activated , and will add to this position @ the 117.00 mark.
current trades :
long usd/jpy from 117.20 , stop @ 116.85 , profit @ 118.5
Bal: 100,027.09 ::: P&L: 27.40 + ( -14.09 )
short JPY 1,758,000 ::: long USD 15,000
Both the usd/jpy and eur/usd trades closed successfully at 117.23 & .9855 . Factoring the lost eur/jpy trade , which would have done very well if I'd placed my stop properly , we're net $27.40 .
I'd placed a limit order @ 117.12 for 15,000 long , which has activated , and will add to this position @ the 117.00 mark.
current trades :
long usd/jpy from 117.20 , stop @ 116.85 , profit @ 118.5
Bal: 100,027.09 ::: P&L: 27.40 + ( -14.09 )
short JPY 1,758,000 ::: long USD 15,000
I'd placed a limit order @ 117.12 for 15,000 long , which has activated , and will add to this position @ the 117.00 mark.
current trades :
long usd/jpy from 117.20 , stop @ 116.85 , profit @ 118.5
Bal: 100,027.09 ::: P&L: 27.40 + ( -14.09 )
short JPY 1,758,000 ::: long USD 15,000
the eur/jpy stop has been tripped , I'm going to stay away from this cross for the time being.
Good Night
*looks like the dollar is finally moving
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 99,990.99 ::: P&L: -8.92 + ( -12.07 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
Good Night
*looks like the dollar is finally moving
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 99,990.99 ::: P&L: -8.92 + ( -12.07 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
the eur/jpy stop has been tripped , I'm going to stay away from this cross for the time being.
Good Night
*looks like the dollar is finally moving
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 99,990.99 ::: P&L: -8.92 + ( -12.07 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
Good Night
*looks like the dollar is finally moving
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 99,990.99 ::: P&L: -8.92 + ( -12.07 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
Rabu, 10 Juli 2002
The eur/usd 30 and 5 minute charts show an interesting formation around .9880 , as though the volatility were subsiding until a decision is made on which way to send the euro. My bet is that it falls ( short 5000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905 ).
I want to determine what's at the root of these second thoughts towards the euro. It's been attributed to the deficits issue , but I wonder whether the reason isn't that traders had begun appraising a euro at parity when the buzz was on two weeks ago and they are now discounting it.
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -30.37 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 10,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
I want to determine what's at the root of these second thoughts towards the euro. It's been attributed to the deficits issue , but I wonder whether the reason isn't that traders had begun appraising a euro at parity when the buzz was on two weeks ago and they are now discounting it.
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -30.37 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 10,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
The eur/usd 30 and 5 minute charts show an interesting formation around .9880 , as though the volatility were subsiding until a decision is made on which way to send the euro. My bet is that it falls ( short 5000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905 ).
I want to determine what's at the root of these second thoughts towards the euro. It's been attributed to the deficits issue , but I wonder whether the reason isn't that traders had begun appraising a euro at parity when the buzz was on two weeks ago and they are now discounting it.
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -30.37 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 10,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
I want to determine what's at the root of these second thoughts towards the euro. It's been attributed to the deficits issue , but I wonder whether the reason isn't that traders had begun appraising a euro at parity when the buzz was on two weeks ago and they are now discounting it.
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
short 5,000 eur/usd from .9878 , stop @ .9905
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -30.37 )
short USD 5,061 , EUR 10,000 ::: long JPY 1,175,210
......this just in..............
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami said the country`s currency authorities are currently watching closely the fall in the dollar to the 117 yen level, adding that a strong yen is unjustified. "We are now watching the forex market movements. Japan`s situation doesn`t justify a strong yen," Hayami told AFX-ASIA in response to a question on whether authorities will take action as the dollar falls to the 117 yen level. "It is not limited to Japan because the dollar is declining across the board," he added, asked if the yen`s value is justified by Japan`s fundamentals
I've set 9000 of the 10000 usd/jpy to take profit @ 117.20
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami said the country`s currency authorities are currently watching closely the fall in the dollar to the 117 yen level, adding that a strong yen is unjustified. "We are now watching the forex market movements. Japan`s situation doesn`t justify a strong yen," Hayami told AFX-ASIA in response to a question on whether authorities will take action as the dollar falls to the 117 yen level. "It is not limited to Japan because the dollar is declining across the board," he added, asked if the yen`s value is justified by Japan`s fundamentals
I've set 9000 of the 10000 usd/jpy to take profit @ 117.20
......this just in..............
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami said the country`s currency authorities are currently watching closely the fall in the dollar to the 117 yen level, adding that a strong yen is unjustified. "We are now watching the forex market movements. Japan`s situation doesn`t justify a strong yen," Hayami told AFX-ASIA in response to a question on whether authorities will take action as the dollar falls to the 117 yen level. "It is not limited to Japan because the dollar is declining across the board," he added, asked if the yen`s value is justified by Japan`s fundamentals
I've set 9000 of the 10000 usd/jpy to take profit @ 117.20
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami said the country`s currency authorities are currently watching closely the fall in the dollar to the 117 yen level, adding that a strong yen is unjustified. "We are now watching the forex market movements. Japan`s situation doesn`t justify a strong yen," Hayami told AFX-ASIA in response to a question on whether authorities will take action as the dollar falls to the 117 yen level. "It is not limited to Japan because the dollar is declining across the board," he added, asked if the yen`s value is justified by Japan`s fundamentals
I've set 9000 of the 10000 usd/jpy to take profit @ 117.20
Olsen Data has developed a new type of barrier option that they call a box option. This defines a discrete box of the price range over time through which the price of the underlying must, or must not, cross. If drawn on a chart the option looks like a box , the height of which is the price range, the length being the period over which this range is active. These can be priced as either hits or misses by the underlying. Olsen deals box options through an automated interface using a Java applet.
There's a demo available here.
There's a demo available here.
Olsen Data has developed a new type of barrier option that they call a box option. This defines a discrete box of the price range over time through which the price of the underlying must, or must not, cross. If drawn on a chart the option looks like a box , the height of which is the price range, the length being the period over which this range is active. These can be priced as either hits or misses by the underlying. Olsen deals box options through an automated interface using a Java applet.
There's a demo available here.
There's a demo available here.
More good news
Mark Henry, currency analyst at GNI.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"Whatever Bush says, the horse has bolted. There will be more bad news on the corporate accounting front -- it's just a matter of time -- and equity concerns are continuing to undermine the dollar."
Tim Fox, market strategist at National Australia Bank.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"U.S. equities were weak overnight, Bush's speech came and went without any great belief he is capable of cracking down. There seems to be a lack of resistance to the dollar down move -- there's no sign of the Bank of Japan, though there is apprehension they might be sniffing around."
Mark Henry, currency analyst at GNI.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"Whatever Bush says, the horse has bolted. There will be more bad news on the corporate accounting front -- it's just a matter of time -- and equity concerns are continuing to undermine the dollar."
Tim Fox, market strategist at National Australia Bank.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"U.S. equities were weak overnight, Bush's speech came and went without any great belief he is capable of cracking down. There seems to be a lack of resistance to the dollar down move -- there's no sign of the Bank of Japan, though there is apprehension they might be sniffing around."
More good news
Mark Henry, currency analyst at GNI.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"Whatever Bush says, the horse has bolted. There will be more bad news on the corporate accounting front -- it's just a matter of time -- and equity concerns are continuing to undermine the dollar."
Tim Fox, market strategist at National Australia Bank.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"U.S. equities were weak overnight, Bush's speech came and went without any great belief he is capable of cracking down. There seems to be a lack of resistance to the dollar down move -- there's no sign of the Bank of Japan, though there is apprehension they might be sniffing around."
Mark Henry, currency analyst at GNI.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"Whatever Bush says, the horse has bolted. There will be more bad news on the corporate accounting front -- it's just a matter of time -- and equity concerns are continuing to undermine the dollar."
Tim Fox, market strategist at National Australia Bank.
Wednesday, July 10, 2002
"U.S. equities were weak overnight, Bush's speech came and went without any great belief he is capable of cracking down. There seems to be a lack of resistance to the dollar down move -- there's no sign of the Bank of Japan, though there is apprehension they might be sniffing around."
eur/jpy looks as though it's going to break 116.20 . I'm going to short just 5000 and add if it breaks 116.00. The Japanese are due to release their economic assessment tonight. If this comes in as expected it should add strength to the Yen across the board.
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -8.42 )
short USD 10,000 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,756,410
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -8.42 )
short USD 10,000 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,756,410
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
eur/jpy looks as though it's going to break 116.20 . I'm going to short just 5000 and add if it breaks 116.00. The Japanese are due to release their economic assessment tonight. If this comes in as expected it should add strength to the Yen across the board.
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -8.42 )
short USD 10,000 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,756,410
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
Bal: 100,000 ::: P&L: 0 + ( -8.42 )
short USD 10,000 , EUR 5,000 ::: long JPY 1,756,410
current trades :
short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 , stop @ 117.90, targeting117.05
short 5,000 eur/jpy from 116.24 , stop @ 116.45
In Case You Didn't Know
"Finishing below 9000, the Dow hit its lowest level since it fell to 8681.40 on Sept. 27 in the wake of the terrorist attacks, while the S&P 500 tanked to its lowest level in nearly five years. The dollar's negative response to Wall Street was reflected in all major currencies but the euro, which continues to struggle under the 99-cent figure on concerns over the Eurozone's stability pact."
Korman Tam Forexnews
"Finishing below 9000, the Dow hit its lowest level since it fell to 8681.40 on Sept. 27 in the wake of the terrorist attacks, while the S&P 500 tanked to its lowest level in nearly five years. The dollar's negative response to Wall Street was reflected in all major currencies but the euro, which continues to struggle under the 99-cent figure on concerns over the Eurozone's stability pact."
Korman Tam Forexnews
In Case You Didn't Know
"Finishing below 9000, the Dow hit its lowest level since it fell to 8681.40 on Sept. 27 in the wake of the terrorist attacks, while the S&P 500 tanked to its lowest level in nearly five years. The dollar's negative response to Wall Street was reflected in all major currencies but the euro, which continues to struggle under the 99-cent figure on concerns over the Eurozone's stability pact."
Korman Tam Forexnews
"Finishing below 9000, the Dow hit its lowest level since it fell to 8681.40 on Sept. 27 in the wake of the terrorist attacks, while the S&P 500 tanked to its lowest level in nearly five years. The dollar's negative response to Wall Street was reflected in all major currencies but the euro, which continues to struggle under the 99-cent figure on concerns over the Eurozone's stability pact."
Korman Tam Forexnews
the usd/jpy trade closed @ 117.65 (+2) against a revised stop order. I was hoping it would reach the 117.90's .
USD / JPY
I think we all know where this pair is headed tonight. The 200 day moving average intersects at 116.90, so thats proportedly the new new intervention target. We're at 117.56 and I'd guess that once below 117.5 we could experience free fall. So the next trade , and the first on the new account , will be short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90 targeting 117.05
current trades :
eur/usd from .9880 stop @ .9843
usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90
USD / JPY
I think we all know where this pair is headed tonight. The 200 day moving average intersects at 116.90, so thats proportedly the new new intervention target. We're at 117.56 and I'd guess that once below 117.5 we could experience free fall. So the next trade , and the first on the new account , will be short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90 targeting 117.05
current trades :
eur/usd from .9880 stop @ .9843
usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90
the usd/jpy trade closed @ 117.65 (+2) against a revised stop order. I was hoping it would reach the 117.90's .
USD / JPY
I think we all know where this pair is headed tonight. The 200 day moving average intersects at 116.90, so thats proportedly the new new intervention target. We're at 117.56 and I'd guess that once below 117.5 we could experience free fall. So the next trade , and the first on the new account , will be short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90 targeting 117.05
current trades :
eur/usd from .9880 stop @ .9843
usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90
USD / JPY
I think we all know where this pair is headed tonight. The 200 day moving average intersects at 116.90, so thats proportedly the new new intervention target. We're at 117.56 and I'd guess that once below 117.5 we could experience free fall. So the next trade , and the first on the new account , will be short 10,000 usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90 targeting 117.05
current trades :
eur/usd from .9880 stop @ .9843
usd/jpy from 117.53 stop @ 117.90
I've set up a mock account with OANDA. Trades that I post to The Hand will be executed within this account. The account possesses $100,000 US with a 20:1 margin ratio ( $2,000,000 available ). I'll incorporate balance , (un)realized P&L and trade size information with posted trades.
I've set up a mock account with OANDA. Trades that I post to The Hand will be executed within this account. The account possesses $100,000 US with a 20:1 margin ratio ( $2,000,000 available ). I'll incorporate balance , (un)realized P&L and trade size information with posted trades.
When I'd first read the comments of Germany's Gerhard Schroeder regarding the relative inferiority of US Corporate culture and accounting practices my first reaction was - 'how would he even know' ?
European corporations are notoriously opaque with regards to their financial condition.
This report from Wharton would seem to confirm that fact.
European corporations are notoriously opaque with regards to their financial condition.
This report from Wharton would seem to confirm that fact.
When I'd first read the comments of Germany's Gerhard Schroeder regarding the relative inferiority of US Corporate culture and accounting practices my first reaction was - 'how would he even know' ?
European corporations are notoriously opaque with regards to their financial condition.
This report from Wharton would seem to confirm that fact.
European corporations are notoriously opaque with regards to their financial condition.
This report from Wharton would seem to confirm that fact.
4 for 8 +32pips ( +1 unr)
eur/usd long activated @ .9880 stop @ .9843
The dollar has recovered to 117.63 .
I'm not expecting further significant declines until later this evening.
If recent BOJ actions are indicative , they'll wait until early in tomorrow's NY session.
This assumes there isn't a significant resumption of dollar selling targeting 117 in the interim.
eur/usd long activated @ .9880 stop @ .9843
The dollar has recovered to 117.63 .
I'm not expecting further significant declines until later this evening.
If recent BOJ actions are indicative , they'll wait until early in tomorrow's NY session.
This assumes there isn't a significant resumption of dollar selling targeting 117 in the interim.
4 for 8 +32pips ( +1 unr)
eur/usd long activated @ .9880 stop @ .9843
The dollar has recovered to 117.63 .
I'm not expecting further significant declines until later this evening.
If recent BOJ actions are indicative , they'll wait until early in tomorrow's NY session.
This assumes there isn't a significant resumption of dollar selling targeting 117 in the interim.
eur/usd long activated @ .9880 stop @ .9843
The dollar has recovered to 117.63 .
I'm not expecting further significant declines until later this evening.
If recent BOJ actions are indicative , they'll wait until early in tomorrow's NY session.
This assumes there isn't a significant resumption of dollar selling targeting 117 in the interim.
2 for 7
Dow 8900
The long dollar limit order has been activated @ 117.63 stop 117.30 .
117.5 is an obvious target and an obvious threshold for BOJ action. While I don't think it's likely that they'll strike at this point in the NY session , I'm hesitant to test this hypothesis. So for now I'm long usd/jpy and down 11pips on the pair.
Euro is above .99 against the dollar , but probably reacting to the USD's quick decline from 117.80. Let's see if it stabilizes and we might be able to catch a few pips as the session closes.
Dow 8900
The long dollar limit order has been activated @ 117.63 stop 117.30 .
117.5 is an obvious target and an obvious threshold for BOJ action. While I don't think it's likely that they'll strike at this point in the NY session , I'm hesitant to test this hypothesis. So for now I'm long usd/jpy and down 11pips on the pair.
Euro is above .99 against the dollar , but probably reacting to the USD's quick decline from 117.80. Let's see if it stabilizes and we might be able to catch a few pips as the session closes.
2 for 7
Dow 8900
The long dollar limit order has been activated @ 117.63 stop 117.30 .
117.5 is an obvious target and an obvious threshold for BOJ action. While I don't think it's likely that they'll strike at this point in the NY session , I'm hesitant to test this hypothesis. So for now I'm long usd/jpy and down 11pips on the pair.
Euro is above .99 against the dollar , but probably reacting to the USD's quick decline from 117.80. Let's see if it stabilizes and we might be able to catch a few pips as the session closes.
Dow 8900
The long dollar limit order has been activated @ 117.63 stop 117.30 .
117.5 is an obvious target and an obvious threshold for BOJ action. While I don't think it's likely that they'll strike at this point in the NY session , I'm hesitant to test this hypothesis. So for now I'm long usd/jpy and down 11pips on the pair.
Euro is above .99 against the dollar , but probably reacting to the USD's quick decline from 117.80. Let's see if it stabilizes and we might be able to catch a few pips as the session closes.
Parity Update :
Euroland: Bad News from the Past, but Don't Question the Stability Pact
Vincenzo Guzzo and Annamaria Grimaldi (London)
Morgan Stanley
the article
from Public Accounts in the Fray Again
This is the fourth time that we have had to revise upwards our budget deficit forecasts for the euro area in the last two weeks. First, the French government asked for an independent audit of its public finances, the final verdict of which was to raise the 2002 official deficit target by more than half a percentage point, to 2.3-2.6% of GDP. Then, on June 25, the National Statistics revised up Italy's 2001 deficit by two tenths to a reading of 1.6%, on the back of higher-than-expected health expenditure, as more information was gathered from local administrations. One day later, Portugal was in the spotlight with the news that a preliminary report from the ECB would put its 2001 budget deficit to 3.9%. Then, on July 3, it was Italy again in the fray with the official announcement by Eurostat that a large fraction of the receipts arising from the securitization of its state assets will be excluded from the 2001 budget balance, probably pushing it close to -2.2%. But let us have a closer look at these cases.
and this interesting note ...forexnews
7/10/2002 11:53:00 AM France's new center-right government passed a new budget with provisions including an income tax cut at the risk of violating the 3% limit set by the EU Stability Pact. As it stands, the new budget will create a deficit of 46 billion euros or 3.2% of GDP, but the government hopes to close the gap with surpluses in local authority and other finances. While the French government claims that the new budget will stay within the limit, it can balance the budget by 2004 only if the country achieves growth levels of at least 3% in the next two years.
Euroland: Bad News from the Past, but Don't Question the Stability Pact
Vincenzo Guzzo and Annamaria Grimaldi (London)
Morgan Stanley
the article
from Public Accounts in the Fray Again
This is the fourth time that we have had to revise upwards our budget deficit forecasts for the euro area in the last two weeks. First, the French government asked for an independent audit of its public finances, the final verdict of which was to raise the 2002 official deficit target by more than half a percentage point, to 2.3-2.6% of GDP. Then, on June 25, the National Statistics revised up Italy's 2001 deficit by two tenths to a reading of 1.6%, on the back of higher-than-expected health expenditure, as more information was gathered from local administrations. One day later, Portugal was in the spotlight with the news that a preliminary report from the ECB would put its 2001 budget deficit to 3.9%. Then, on July 3, it was Italy again in the fray with the official announcement by Eurostat that a large fraction of the receipts arising from the securitization of its state assets will be excluded from the 2001 budget balance, probably pushing it close to -2.2%. But let us have a closer look at these cases.
and this interesting note ...forexnews
7/10/2002 11:53:00 AM France's new center-right government passed a new budget with provisions including an income tax cut at the risk of violating the 3% limit set by the EU Stability Pact. As it stands, the new budget will create a deficit of 46 billion euros or 3.2% of GDP, but the government hopes to close the gap with surpluses in local authority and other finances. While the French government claims that the new budget will stay within the limit, it can balance the budget by 2004 only if the country achieves growth levels of at least 3% in the next two years.
Parity Update :
Euroland: Bad News from the Past, but Don't Question the Stability Pact
Vincenzo Guzzo and Annamaria Grimaldi (London)
Morgan Stanley
the article
from Public Accounts in the Fray Again
This is the fourth time that we have had to revise upwards our budget deficit forecasts for the euro area in the last two weeks. First, the French government asked for an independent audit of its public finances, the final verdict of which was to raise the 2002 official deficit target by more than half a percentage point, to 2.3-2.6% of GDP. Then, on June 25, the National Statistics revised up Italy's 2001 deficit by two tenths to a reading of 1.6%, on the back of higher-than-expected health expenditure, as more information was gathered from local administrations. One day later, Portugal was in the spotlight with the news that a preliminary report from the ECB would put its 2001 budget deficit to 3.9%. Then, on July 3, it was Italy again in the fray with the official announcement by Eurostat that a large fraction of the receipts arising from the securitization of its state assets will be excluded from the 2001 budget balance, probably pushing it close to -2.2%. But let us have a closer look at these cases.
and this interesting note ...forexnews
7/10/2002 11:53:00 AM France's new center-right government passed a new budget with provisions including an income tax cut at the risk of violating the 3% limit set by the EU Stability Pact. As it stands, the new budget will create a deficit of 46 billion euros or 3.2% of GDP, but the government hopes to close the gap with surpluses in local authority and other finances. While the French government claims that the new budget will stay within the limit, it can balance the budget by 2004 only if the country achieves growth levels of at least 3% in the next two years.
Euroland: Bad News from the Past, but Don't Question the Stability Pact
Vincenzo Guzzo and Annamaria Grimaldi (London)
Morgan Stanley
the article
from Public Accounts in the Fray Again
This is the fourth time that we have had to revise upwards our budget deficit forecasts for the euro area in the last two weeks. First, the French government asked for an independent audit of its public finances, the final verdict of which was to raise the 2002 official deficit target by more than half a percentage point, to 2.3-2.6% of GDP. Then, on June 25, the National Statistics revised up Italy's 2001 deficit by two tenths to a reading of 1.6%, on the back of higher-than-expected health expenditure, as more information was gathered from local administrations. One day later, Portugal was in the spotlight with the news that a preliminary report from the ECB would put its 2001 budget deficit to 3.9%. Then, on July 3, it was Italy again in the fray with the official announcement by Eurostat that a large fraction of the receipts arising from the securitization of its state assets will be excluded from the 2001 budget balance, probably pushing it close to -2.2%. But let us have a closer look at these cases.
and this interesting note ...forexnews
7/10/2002 11:53:00 AM France's new center-right government passed a new budget with provisions including an income tax cut at the risk of violating the 3% limit set by the EU Stability Pact. As it stands, the new budget will create a deficit of 46 billion euros or 3.2% of GDP, but the government hopes to close the gap with surpluses in local authority and other finances. While the French government claims that the new budget will stay within the limit, it can balance the budget by 2004 only if the country achieves growth levels of at least 3% in the next two years.
2 for 6
closed the usd/jpy @ 117.68 for 26 pips.
There's a limit order waiting @ 117.63 to buy USD.
There's been a slight retracement from app. 8960 on the Dow , but nothing to suggest a reconsideration of the 9000 level.
US economic news has been mixed today w/ a 0.6% drop ( + .1 ex oil) in import prices against a new increase in May inventory levels ( +0.1) resulting from a decline in sales (-0.2) at the wholesale level.
closed the usd/jpy @ 117.68 for 26 pips.
There's a limit order waiting @ 117.63 to buy USD.
There's been a slight retracement from app. 8960 on the Dow , but nothing to suggest a reconsideration of the 9000 level.
US economic news has been mixed today w/ a 0.6% drop ( + .1 ex oil) in import prices against a new increase in May inventory levels ( +0.1) resulting from a decline in sales (-0.2) at the wholesale level.
2 for 6
closed the usd/jpy @ 117.68 for 26 pips.
There's a limit order waiting @ 117.63 to buy USD.
There's been a slight retracement from app. 8960 on the Dow , but nothing to suggest a reconsideration of the 9000 level.
US economic news has been mixed today w/ a 0.6% drop ( + .1 ex oil) in import prices against a new increase in May inventory levels ( +0.1) resulting from a decline in sales (-0.2) at the wholesale level.
closed the usd/jpy @ 117.68 for 26 pips.
There's a limit order waiting @ 117.63 to buy USD.
There's been a slight retracement from app. 8960 on the Dow , but nothing to suggest a reconsideration of the 9000 level.
US economic news has been mixed today w/ a 0.6% drop ( + .1 ex oil) in import prices against a new increase in May inventory levels ( +0.1) resulting from a decline in sales (-0.2) at the wholesale level.
1 for 6
the Dow is down .74% and may threaten the 9000 level.
short usd/chf from 1.4891 stop @ 1.4925
short usd/jpy from 117.94 stop @ 118.15
short eur/jpy from 116.57 stop @ 116.80
I'll be watching the Euro for a break below .9870 or above .99 .
Euro trading stalls at about this time each day and may simply hover in the .9870 to .9890 range
the Dow is down .74% and may threaten the 9000 level.
short usd/chf from 1.4891 stop @ 1.4925
short usd/jpy from 117.94 stop @ 118.15
short eur/jpy from 116.57 stop @ 116.80
I'll be watching the Euro for a break below .9870 or above .99 .
Euro trading stalls at about this time each day and may simply hover in the .9870 to .9890 range
1 for 6
the Dow is down .74% and may threaten the 9000 level.
short usd/chf from 1.4891 stop @ 1.4925
short usd/jpy from 117.94 stop @ 118.15
short eur/jpy from 116.57 stop @ 116.80
I'll be watching the Euro for a break below .9870 or above .99 .
Euro trading stalls at about this time each day and may simply hover in the .9870 to .9890 range
the Dow is down .74% and may threaten the 9000 level.
short usd/chf from 1.4891 stop @ 1.4925
short usd/jpy from 117.94 stop @ 118.15
short eur/jpy from 116.57 stop @ 116.80
I'll be watching the Euro for a break below .9870 or above .99 .
Euro trading stalls at about this time each day and may simply hover in the .9870 to .9890 range
Selasa, 09 Juli 2002
A Stronger Euro and its Impact on European Affiliate Earnings
Joe Quinlan/Rebecca McCaughrin (New York) Morgan Stanley
the article
from the article ..
Cross-border trade and foreign affiliate sales are the two primary means by which multinationals deliver goods and services to foreign markets. Currency adjustments affect both variables, although the speed by which price changes are transmitted via trade versus foreign affiliates varies. Typically, exchange rate adjustments affect trade flows with a lag as foreign suppliers adjust production schedules and shipments, and as customers rethink purchasing strategies. The process takes time and usually appears in the trade data three to six months after the initial move in prices.
In the case of foreign affiliates, a pronounced shift in exchange rates has a more immediate effect. Affiliate sales and earnings are usually tallied monthly, and rolled into the financial statements of the parent each quarter. The upshot is that the effects of shifting exchange rates are transmitted to the balance sheets of multinationals almost immediately and appear long before the trade data are available.
Joe Quinlan/Rebecca McCaughrin (New York) Morgan Stanley
the article
from the article ..
Cross-border trade and foreign affiliate sales are the two primary means by which multinationals deliver goods and services to foreign markets. Currency adjustments affect both variables, although the speed by which price changes are transmitted via trade versus foreign affiliates varies. Typically, exchange rate adjustments affect trade flows with a lag as foreign suppliers adjust production schedules and shipments, and as customers rethink purchasing strategies. The process takes time and usually appears in the trade data three to six months after the initial move in prices.
In the case of foreign affiliates, a pronounced shift in exchange rates has a more immediate effect. Affiliate sales and earnings are usually tallied monthly, and rolled into the financial statements of the parent each quarter. The upshot is that the effects of shifting exchange rates are transmitted to the balance sheets of multinationals almost immediately and appear long before the trade data are available.
A Stronger Euro and its Impact on European Affiliate Earnings
Joe Quinlan/Rebecca McCaughrin (New York) Morgan Stanley
the article
from the article ..
Cross-border trade and foreign affiliate sales are the two primary means by which multinationals deliver goods and services to foreign markets. Currency adjustments affect both variables, although the speed by which price changes are transmitted via trade versus foreign affiliates varies. Typically, exchange rate adjustments affect trade flows with a lag as foreign suppliers adjust production schedules and shipments, and as customers rethink purchasing strategies. The process takes time and usually appears in the trade data three to six months after the initial move in prices.
In the case of foreign affiliates, a pronounced shift in exchange rates has a more immediate effect. Affiliate sales and earnings are usually tallied monthly, and rolled into the financial statements of the parent each quarter. The upshot is that the effects of shifting exchange rates are transmitted to the balance sheets of multinationals almost immediately and appear long before the trade data are available.
Joe Quinlan/Rebecca McCaughrin (New York) Morgan Stanley
the article
from the article ..
Cross-border trade and foreign affiliate sales are the two primary means by which multinationals deliver goods and services to foreign markets. Currency adjustments affect both variables, although the speed by which price changes are transmitted via trade versus foreign affiliates varies. Typically, exchange rate adjustments affect trade flows with a lag as foreign suppliers adjust production schedules and shipments, and as customers rethink purchasing strategies. The process takes time and usually appears in the trade data three to six months after the initial move in prices.
In the case of foreign affiliates, a pronounced shift in exchange rates has a more immediate effect. Affiliate sales and earnings are usually tallied monthly, and rolled into the financial statements of the parent each quarter. The upshot is that the effects of shifting exchange rates are transmitted to the balance sheets of multinationals almost immediately and appear long before the trade data are available.
The Euro has fallen below .99 against the dollar
and looks headed for .9880 . I'm placing a limit order
to buy at .9883 and stopping @ .9860.
The Dollar had dipped below 118 against the Yen during
the NY session. Mizoguchi's comments seemed to have
staunched further declines for the time being , he'd mentioned the 117 level explicitly.
The Japanese have been unusually candid lately.
and looks headed for .9880 . I'm placing a limit order
to buy at .9883 and stopping @ .9860.
The Dollar had dipped below 118 against the Yen during
the NY session. Mizoguchi's comments seemed to have
staunched further declines for the time being , he'd mentioned the 117 level explicitly.
The Japanese have been unusually candid lately.
The Euro has fallen below .99 against the dollar
and looks headed for .9880 . I'm placing a limit order
to buy at .9883 and stopping @ .9860.
The Dollar had dipped below 118 against the Yen during
the NY session. Mizoguchi's comments seemed to have
staunched further declines for the time being , he'd mentioned the 117 level explicitly.
The Japanese have been unusually candid lately.
and looks headed for .9880 . I'm placing a limit order
to buy at .9883 and stopping @ .9860.
The Dollar had dipped below 118 against the Yen during
the NY session. Mizoguchi's comments seemed to have
staunched further declines for the time being , he'd mentioned the 117 level explicitly.
The Japanese have been unusually candid lately.
Yen Rhetoric: The Charade Continues by Ashraf Laidi Forexnews
the article
"I don't have any specific, professional experience in the area" . That's what Mr. Masajuro Shiokawa said in April 26, 2001, on the day of his appointment as Finance Minister and upon his departure to the G7 meeting of finance ministers.
....
Interestingly, Shiokawa's first pronouncement on foreign exchange rates was made on that same day of his appointment in late April, sending the Japanese currency to 1-week and 2-week lows against the dollar and the euro after he expressed his disapproval for market interventions, indicating that currency rates should be left totally to the markets. The statement did not help the already battered yen, which was barely recovering from a tumble to 1 year lows against the greenback earlier that month.
But that was then. This weekend, Mr. Shiokawa rocked the yen--this time the opposite way--by asserting that he, along with 25 other finance ministers from Europe and Asia expected the yen to push further against the dollar towards the 115-yen level. Not only did the Finance Minister violate the unwritten rule of uttering specific currency levels, but also included 25 other policy makers in voicing his expectations for a continued decline in the already disturbingly falling dollar.
the article
"I don't have any specific, professional experience in the area" . That's what Mr. Masajuro Shiokawa said in April 26, 2001, on the day of his appointment as Finance Minister and upon his departure to the G7 meeting of finance ministers.
....
Interestingly, Shiokawa's first pronouncement on foreign exchange rates was made on that same day of his appointment in late April, sending the Japanese currency to 1-week and 2-week lows against the dollar and the euro after he expressed his disapproval for market interventions, indicating that currency rates should be left totally to the markets. The statement did not help the already battered yen, which was barely recovering from a tumble to 1 year lows against the greenback earlier that month.
But that was then. This weekend, Mr. Shiokawa rocked the yen--this time the opposite way--by asserting that he, along with 25 other finance ministers from Europe and Asia expected the yen to push further against the dollar towards the 115-yen level. Not only did the Finance Minister violate the unwritten rule of uttering specific currency levels, but also included 25 other policy makers in voicing his expectations for a continued decline in the already disturbingly falling dollar.
Yen Rhetoric: The Charade Continues by Ashraf Laidi Forexnews
the article
"I don't have any specific, professional experience in the area" . That's what Mr. Masajuro Shiokawa said in April 26, 2001, on the day of his appointment as Finance Minister and upon his departure to the G7 meeting of finance ministers.
....
Interestingly, Shiokawa's first pronouncement on foreign exchange rates was made on that same day of his appointment in late April, sending the Japanese currency to 1-week and 2-week lows against the dollar and the euro after he expressed his disapproval for market interventions, indicating that currency rates should be left totally to the markets. The statement did not help the already battered yen, which was barely recovering from a tumble to 1 year lows against the greenback earlier that month.
But that was then. This weekend, Mr. Shiokawa rocked the yen--this time the opposite way--by asserting that he, along with 25 other finance ministers from Europe and Asia expected the yen to push further against the dollar towards the 115-yen level. Not only did the Finance Minister violate the unwritten rule of uttering specific currency levels, but also included 25 other policy makers in voicing his expectations for a continued decline in the already disturbingly falling dollar.
the article
"I don't have any specific, professional experience in the area" . That's what Mr. Masajuro Shiokawa said in April 26, 2001, on the day of his appointment as Finance Minister and upon his departure to the G7 meeting of finance ministers.
....
Interestingly, Shiokawa's first pronouncement on foreign exchange rates was made on that same day of his appointment in late April, sending the Japanese currency to 1-week and 2-week lows against the dollar and the euro after he expressed his disapproval for market interventions, indicating that currency rates should be left totally to the markets. The statement did not help the already battered yen, which was barely recovering from a tumble to 1 year lows against the greenback earlier that month.
But that was then. This weekend, Mr. Shiokawa rocked the yen--this time the opposite way--by asserting that he, along with 25 other finance ministers from Europe and Asia expected the yen to push further against the dollar towards the 115-yen level. Not only did the Finance Minister violate the unwritten rule of uttering specific currency levels, but also included 25 other policy makers in voicing his expectations for a continued decline in the already disturbingly falling dollar.
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